The School of Odds
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Bragantino-SP v Clube Atlético Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 22:00 UTC

Final: Bragantino-SP 0–1 Clube Atlético Mineiro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 44.03%2.27fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -4.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.67%43.95%43.97%45.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.102.1551.28%48.08%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 24.86%4.02fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.470%
Kelly +0.621%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%24.89%24.93%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.754.1028.57%26.61%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.637%
Kelly -0.933%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.32%31.17%31.11%31.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.963.1535.71%33.82%33.78%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bragantino-SP (Local): 44.03%; Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit): 24.86%; Draw: 31.11%. For Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.90%EV -7.54%E -3.59%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV +1.93%E +0.470%K +0.621%G +0.012%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.60%EV -2.01%E -0.637%K -0.933%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-12 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -9.74%E -4.75%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -1.80%E -0.456%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:55
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -9.74%E -4.75%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -1.80%E -0.456%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -9.74%E -4.75%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -1.80%E -0.456%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:54
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -9.74%E -4.75%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -1.80%E -0.456%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-12 21:54
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -6.66%E -3.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.40%EV -3.05%E -0.781%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 17:15
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.52%EV -5.77%E -2.70%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.55%EV -3.54%E -0.913%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -4.18%E -1.36%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 21:50
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.11%EV -6.66%E -3.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -4.29%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.60%EV -7.92%E -2.67%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 21:49
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.04%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.12%E -1.68%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 21:35
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.54%E -3.59%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.53%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 21:50
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 21:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-12 21:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.90%EV -6.22%E -2.92%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-12 21:49
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.02%EV -8.42%E -4.05%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.78%E -3.37%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-12 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.50%EV -6.66%E -3.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.92%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.58%EV -9.16%E -3.14%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-12 21:45
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%EV -9.74%E -4.75%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.45%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.41%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-12 21:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.24%EV -13.70%E -6.99%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.79%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-12 21:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.24%EV -13.70%E -6.99%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.79%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-12 21:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.37%EV -14.14%E -7.25%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.72%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.37%EV -14.14%E -7.25%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -8.02%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.72%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.17%EV -12.82%E -6.47%K -13.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.51%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.32%EV -8.23%E -2.79%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-12 21:44
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 21:54
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.33%E -2.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -10.40%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 21:55
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -9.74%E -4.75%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -12.89%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-12 21:49
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.54%E -3.59%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.99%E -3.71%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.67%E -2.22%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-12 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-08-12 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-12 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-12 21:55
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.85%1.3%2026-08-12 21:55

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