Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors v Recoleta FC

2026-08-12 20:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

76%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 75.59%1.32fair odd

EV -4.00%

Edge -3.15%

Kelly -14.80%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.40%75.59%76.04%76.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.161.221.201.2786.21%82.07%83.33%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Recoleta FC (Visit)

Prediction 7.53%13.28fair odd

EV +1.63%

Edge +0.120%

Kelly +0.130%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 13.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.10%7.53%7.70%10.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.5011.5812.0013.5011.76%8.64%8.33%7.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.88%5.92fair odd

EV +3.97%

Edge +0.645%

Kelly +0.770%

Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 6.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.33%16.88%16.26%18.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.005.425.506.1620.00%18.46%18.18%16.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Boca Juniors (Local): 75.59%; Recoleta FC (Visit): 7.53%; Draw: 16.88%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.92. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.16, producing a positive expected value of +3.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.91%EV -4.00%E -3.15%K -14.80%G +0.000%	13.50I 7.41%NM 7.24%EV +1.63%E +0.120%K +0.130%G +0.002%	6.16I 16.23%NM 15.86%EV +3.97%E +0.645%K +0.770%G +0.031%	2.4%	2026-07-31 13:01
LeoVegas	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.67%EV -9.29%E -7.74%K -46.44%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.00%EV -13.43%E -1.17%K -1.28%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV +1.27%E +0.212%K +0.254%G +0.003%	8.7%	2026-07-31 12:39
Codere (IT)	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.97%EV -9.29%E -7.74%K -46.44%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.10%EV -2.14%E -0.164%K -0.178%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -2.10%E -0.363%K -0.438%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-31 12:40
Coolbet	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.96%EV -7.02%E -5.71%K -30.52%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -9.67%E -0.805%K -0.879%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -2.95%E -0.513%K -0.621%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-31 11:25
SportsBet	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.31%EV -9.29%E -7.74%K -46.44%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -9.67%E -0.805%K -0.879%G +0.000%	5.70I 17.54%NM 16.06%EV -3.79%E -0.665%K -0.807%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-31 11:24
Coral	1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -9.29%E -7.74%K -46.44%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -24.72%E -2.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -7.17%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-07-31 11:04
Paddy Power	1.18I 84.75%NM 75.65%EV -10.80%E -9.15%K -60.00%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.12%EV -17.19%E -1.56%K -1.72%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -7.17%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-07-31 11:23
William Hill	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.03%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -9.67%E -0.805%K -0.879%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -15.61%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-31 12:00
888sport	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.03%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -9.67%E -0.805%K -0.879%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -15.61%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-31 12:04
Mr Green (SE)	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.03%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -9.67%E -0.805%K -0.879%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -15.61%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-31 12:04
888sport (SE)	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -5.51%E -4.41%K -22.03%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -9.67%E -0.805%K -0.879%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -15.61%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-31 12:05
Sky Bet	1.20I 83.33%NM 72.40%EV -9.29%E -7.74%K -46.44%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.22%EV -36.01%E -4.24%K -4.80%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -15.61%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%	15.1%	2026-07-31 11:24
Unibet (FR)	1.16I 86.21%NM 74.77%EV -12.31%E -10.61%K -76.95%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 7.88%EV -17.19%E -1.56%K -1.72%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.35%EV -15.61%E -3.12%K -3.90%G +0.000%	15.3%	2026-07-31 12:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.