The School of Odds
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Boca Juniors v Recoleta FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 22:00 UTC

Final: Boca Juniors 3–1 Recoleta FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prediction 81.61%1.23fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -10.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.33%81.68%81.44%82.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.2090.09%87.01%86.96%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Recoleta FC (Visit)

Prediction 5.20%19.22fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.059%
Kelly -0.062%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.94%5.21%5.22%8.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0015.7116.0019.009.09%6.37%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.18%7.59fair odd
EV +4.41%
Edge +0.557%
Kelly +0.637%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 7.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.85%13.11%13.34%15.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.817.007.9217.39%14.69%14.29%12.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 81.61%; Recoleta FC (Visit): 5.20%; Draw: 13.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.88%EV -5.33%E -4.59%K -33.31%G +0.000%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.27%EV -32.87%E -2.55%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.92I 12.63%NM 11.85%EV +4.41%E +0.557%K +0.637%G +0.028%6.6%2026-08-11 21:54
Pinnacle🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.66%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.72%G +0.000%18.66I 5.36%NM 5.05%EV -2.89%E -0.155%K -0.164%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.29%EV +1.11%E +0.145%K +0.167%G +0.002%6.1%2026-08-11 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -6.33%E -0.351%K -0.372%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -1.13%E -0.150%K -0.174%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 21:50
LeoVegas🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.90%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -11.53%E -0.678%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -1.13%E -0.150%K -0.174%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 21:50
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.27%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV -16.73%E -1.05%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.89%EV -4.42%E -0.610%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 21:53
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.87%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.83%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -27.14%E -1.94%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -4.42%E -0.610%K -0.708%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-11 21:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.51%EV -2.06%E -1.72%K -10.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.68%EV -11.53%E -0.678%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.80%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-11 21:54
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 81.03%EV -3.70%E -3.13%K -20.54%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -6.33%E -0.351%K -0.372%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.66%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-11 20:59
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.65%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV -1.12%E -0.059%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-11 21:54
888sport🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.65%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV -1.12%E -0.059%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-11 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.65%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.94%EV -1.12%E -0.059%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-11 21:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.42%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.20%EV -6.33%E -0.351%K -0.372%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 21:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -11.53%E -0.678%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-11 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -6.15%E -5.34%K -40.97%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -11.53%E -0.678%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-11 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -9.41%E -8.48%K -85.54%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -32.35%E -2.49%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -7.72%E -1.10%K -1.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-11 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.80%EV -9.41%E -8.48%K -85.54%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.61%EV -16.73%E -1.05%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.59%EV -12.99%E -1.97%K -2.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-11 21:50
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.35%EV -3.70%E -3.13%K -20.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -21.94%E -1.46%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -14.31%E -2.20%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 21:54
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -4.51%E -3.86%K -26.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -21.94%E -1.46%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.31%E -2.20%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -4.51%E -3.86%K -26.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -21.94%E -1.46%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.31%E -2.20%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 21:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -4.51%E -3.86%K -26.55%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -21.94%E -1.46%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.31%E -2.20%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 21:54
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -6.96%E -6.11%K -49.72%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -21.94%E -1.46%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -14.31%E -2.20%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-11 21:25
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.33%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.05%EV -42.75%E -3.89%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.62%EV -14.31%E -2.20%K -2.60%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-11 21:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.61%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -32.35%E -2.49%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -19.58%E -3.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.61%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -32.35%E -2.49%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -19.58%E -3.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 21:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.61%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -32.35%E -2.49%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -19.58%E -3.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 78.61%EV -7.78%E -6.88%K -59.83%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -32.35%E -2.49%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.56%EV -19.58%E -3.21%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 21:54
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.47%EV -4.51%E -3.86%K -26.55%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.56%EV -14.13%E -0.856%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -24.20%E -4.21%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.89%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.35%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.76%1.0%2026-08-11 21:55
Smarkets◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.81%19.01I 5.26%NM 5.20%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.99%1.1%2026-08-11 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.69%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%1.3%2026-08-11 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.69%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.97%1.3%2026-08-11 21:55

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