The School of Odds
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Barracas Central v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 22:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central (Local)

Prediction 40.76%2.45fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.45%40.89%40.76%49.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.212.202.3853.19%45.33%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 28.76%3.48fair odd
EV +19.36%
Edge +4.67%
Kelly +6.15%
Growth +1.19%

assuming max odds 4.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.20%28.59%28.76%29.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.334.1533.33%30.17%30.08%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.47%3.28fair odd
EV +0.561%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.244%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.79%30.52%30.47%31.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.073.103.3034.84%32.59%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barracas Central (Local): 40.76%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 28.76%; Draw: 30.47%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.01%EV -23.36%E -12.43%K -26.55%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.20%EV +19.36%E +4.67%K +6.15%G +1.19%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -2.49%E -0.777%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-07 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.35%EV -8.28%E -3.68%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.09%EV +3.55%E +0.985%K +1.36%G +0.048%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.56%EV +0.561%E +0.170%K +0.244%G +0.001%2.5%2026-04-07 21:59
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.40%EV -11.13%E -5.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV +0.669%E +0.191%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -2.49%E -0.777%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 21:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.40%EV -11.13%E -5.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV +0.669%E +0.191%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -2.49%E -0.777%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 22:00
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.40%EV -11.13%E -5.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV +0.669%E +0.191%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -2.49%E -0.777%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 21:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.40%EV -11.13%E -5.11%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV +0.669%E +0.191%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -2.49%E -0.777%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-07 22:00
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.59%EV -10.32%E -4.69%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -2.21%E -0.649%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.84%EV -4.31%E -1.37%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-07 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -13.58%E -6.41%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -2.21%E -0.649%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -4.01%E -1.27%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-07 21:59
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV -2.98%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.91%EV -3.36%E -0.999%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.27%EV -2.18%E -0.680%K -0.987%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-07 21:59
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -14.39%E -6.85%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.53%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-07 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -14.39%E -6.85%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.53%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-07 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -14.39%E -6.85%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -3.65%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -5.53%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-07 22:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.53%E -1.79%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-07 21:59
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.53%EV -4.20%E -1.79%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.95%EV -5.37%E -1.63%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.53%EV -4.92%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 21:59
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -7.06%E -2.31%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-07 21:56
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-07 22:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-07 22:00
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-07 21:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-07 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.24%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-07 21:59
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.94%EV -12.36%E -5.75%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.39%EV -10.84%E -3.50%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.67%EV -12.54%E -4.37%K -6.71%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-07 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.45%EV -14.39%E -6.85%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.54%EV -12.27%E -4.02%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -11.63%E -4.01%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-07 21:59
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.32%E -4.69%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.71%E -4.57%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-07 22:00
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.32%E -4.69%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.71%E -4.57%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.58%E -2.86%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-07 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.70%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.76%1.6%2026-04-07 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.70%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.76%1.6%2026-04-07 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.70%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.76%1.6%2026-04-07 22:00
Matchbook◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.37%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74%1.8%2026-04-07 22:00
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.84%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.20%3.5%2026-04-07 22:01