L’École des cotes

Barracas Central v Olimpia Asunción

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 00:00 UTC

Score final : Barracas Central 1–2 Olimpia Asunción

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

26 opérateurs (5 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Barracas Central (Local)

Prévision 31.29%3.20cote équitable
EV -4.58%
Avantage -1.50%
Kelly -2.23%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.78%31.40%31.22%33.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.752.892.883.0536.36%34.62%34.72%32.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Olimpia Asunción (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.06%2.77cote équitable
EV +0.961%
Avantage +0.343%
Kelly +0.534%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.28%35.95%36.06%37.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.612.612.8042.55%38.29%38.31%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.66%3.06cote équitable
EV -0.395%
Avantage -0.129%
Kelly -0.192%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.71%32.65%32.72%33.89%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.632.852.853.0538.02%35.11%35.09%32.79%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (26 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 33.10%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV +0.961%E +0.343%K +0.534%G +0.005%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.02%EV -0.395%E -0.129%K -0.192%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-06 23:35
Casumo2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -2.64%E -0.980%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.66%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Unibet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -2.64%E -0.980%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.66%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Unibet (NL)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -2.64%E -0.980%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.66%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Svenska Spel2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -2.64%E -0.980%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.66%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Pinnacle3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -4.58%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.06%EV -4.81%E -1.82%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.72%EV -4.97%E -1.71%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 23:45
Coolbet2.98I 33.56%NM 31.94%EV -6.77%E -2.27%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.33%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.73%EV -2.03%E -0.676%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 16:35
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -10.19%E -3.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 23:40
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -10.19%E -3.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 23:40
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -10.19%E -3.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 23:40
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -9.27%E -3.20%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.01%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.36%EV -10.19%E -3.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 23:40
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 31.59%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -11.82%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 23:40
SportsBet2.87I 34.84%NM 31.66%EV -10.21%E -3.56%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.68%EV -5.53%E -2.11%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -11.82%E -4.38%K -6.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-06 23:40
1xBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -2.03%E -0.676%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 23:55
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -4.58%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.38%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.29%E -1.83%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:40
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.14%E -2.05%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -6.93%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 23:30
Bovada2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.71%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -6.93%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -13.97%E -5.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -6.93%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 23:55
LiveScore Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -13.97%E -5.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -6.93%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 23:55
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -13.97%E -5.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -6.93%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 23:55
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -13.97%E -5.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -6.93%E -2.43%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 23:54
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -6.25%E -2.40%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -14.11%E -5.37%K -8.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-06 23:40
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -8.65%E -2.96%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -6.97%E -2.70%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -5.95%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-06 23:45
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -9.90%E -3.44%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.86%E -3.94%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -5.95%E -2.06%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-06 23:01
Coral2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -12.40%E -4.43%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.86%E -3.94%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.19%E -3.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-06 23:20
Unibet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -10.84%E -3.80%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -15.26%E -6.50%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.90%EV -10.19%E -3.71%K -5.82%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-06 23:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.18%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.89%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.94%0.2%2026-05-06 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77%0.7%2026-05-06 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77%0.7%2026-05-06 23:46
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77%0.7%2026-05-06 23:45
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.71%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.62%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.67%1.7%2026-05-06 23:45