The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Barracas Central v Audax Italiano

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 00:00 UTC

Final: Barracas Central 1–1 Audax Italiano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barracas Central (Local)

Prediction 50.53%1.98fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.99%50.45%50.54%51.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.831.831.9257.14%54.63%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Audax Italiano (Visit)

Prediction 21.45%4.66fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -0.768%
Kelly -0.988%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.77%21.46%21.31%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.264.284.5025.64%23.48%23.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.02%3.57fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.553%
Kelly -0.774%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%28.08%28.15%28.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.5033.33%30.44%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barracas Central (Local): 50.53%; Audax Italiano (Visit): 21.45%; Draw: 28.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.63%EV -2.99%E -1.56%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV -3.46%E -0.768%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -1.93%E -0.553%K -0.774%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-21 08:09
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -3.46%E -0.768%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-21 08:45
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%EV -6.68%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 08:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%EV -6.68%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 08:09
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%EV -6.68%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 08:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.51%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.71%EV -6.68%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.74%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 08:10
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -5.51%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -7.75%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-24 00:13
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -6.52%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 00:04
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.89%EV -6.52%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -8.82%E -2.08%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.94%E -2.75%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-21 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.04%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.08%EV -4.96%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -6.14%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 18:05
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 20.77%EV -3.67%E -0.818%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 10:15
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 10:59
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.10%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 18:00
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.10%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.10%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.10%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-21 17:55
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -7.53%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -16.33%E -4.19%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-24 00:05
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 12:20
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-24 00:03
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 08:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 08:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 08:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -7.54%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 08:10
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -9.89%E -2.36%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.34%E -3.23%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-22 08:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.67%EV -11.07%E -6.29%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.13%EV -15.26%E -3.86%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -13.14%E -4.24%K -6.26%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 00:05
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.21%EV -11.58%E -6.62%K -15.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -16.33%E -4.19%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.71%EV -15.94%E -5.31%K -7.97%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-21 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 49.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.30%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.62%16.5%2026-04-24 03:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.65%167.5%2026-04-24 03:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.68%1.02I 98.04%NM 36.65%167.5%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.18I 84.75%NM 31.56%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.88%168.5%2026-04-24 03:40