The School of Odds
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Audax Italiano v Barracas Central

Kickoff: 2026-05-19 22:00 UTC

Final: Audax Italiano 2–0 Barracas Central

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Audax Italiano (Local)

Prediction 40.76%2.45fair odd
EV +5.97%
Edge +2.30%
Kelly +3.73%
Growth +0.223%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.68%40.76%40.71%41.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.332.302.6047.62%42.85%43.48%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barracas Central (Visit)

Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.933%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%28.83%29.08%31.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.083.103.3534.72%32.45%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.33%3.30fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.31%30.41%30.21%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.023.023.2135.71%33.14%33.06%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Audax Italiano (Local): 40.76%; Barracas Central (Visit): 28.92%; Draw: 30.33%. For Audax Italiano (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.72%EV +5.97%E +2.30%K +3.73%G +0.223%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.63%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.65%EV -2.96%E -0.924%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.68%EV +1.08%E +0.434%K +0.727%G +0.008%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.68%EV +1.08%E +0.434%K +0.727%G +0.008%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.68%EV +1.08%E +0.434%K +0.727%G +0.008%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.68%EV +1.08%E +0.434%K +0.727%G +0.008%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -14.69%E -4.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.64%EV -7.51%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:50
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -2.18%E -0.910%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.48%EV -16.72%E -5.80%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-19 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -2.18%E -0.910%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.48%EV -16.72%E -5.80%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-19 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -2.18%E -0.910%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.48%EV -16.72%E -5.80%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-19 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -2.18%E -0.910%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.48%EV -16.72%E -5.80%K -8.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.54%E -3.57%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-19 21:50
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.38%EV -3.00%E -1.26%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -4.57%E -1.39%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.51%EV -4.47%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-19 21:40
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.42%EV -6.26%E -2.72%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -3.13%E -0.933%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.15%EV -4.17%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-19 21:50
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.29%EV -6.26%E -2.72%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%EV -5.73%E -1.76%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.58%EV -2.65%E -0.826%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-19 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -6.26%E -2.72%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.02%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -4.47%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-19 21:40
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.26%E -2.72%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.91%E -2.83%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -4.47%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.26%E -2.72%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.46%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-19 21:40
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.26%E -2.72%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:50
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.46%EV -7.08%E -3.10%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%EV -8.91%E -2.83%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.25%EV -7.51%E -2.46%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-19 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.99%E -1.93%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-19 21:50
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.46%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:40
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.46%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.46%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.46%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.05%E -4.16%K -6.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-19 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -10.36%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -12.66%E -4.40%K -6.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-19 21:50
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -16.14%E -5.57%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-19 21:40
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -8.30%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -13.25%E -4.42%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -15.09%E -5.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-19 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.87%EV -14.41%E -6.86%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -11.80%E -3.87%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -9.02%E -3.01%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-19 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 41.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.02%0.7%2026-05-19 21:50
Matchbook◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%0.8%2026-05-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-05-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-05-19 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-05-19 21:50