The School of Odds
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América de Cali v CA Tigre BA

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 02:00 UTC

Final: América de Cali 1–1 CA Tigre BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

América de Cali (Local)

Prediction 43.34%2.31fair odd
EV -4.65%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%43.71%43.34%46.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.082.052.2051.81%48.18%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 25.59%3.91fair odd
EV +4.92%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.47%25.23%25.59%27.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.693.634.1030.77%27.07%27.59%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.07%3.22fair odd
EV +2.53%
Edge +0.766%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.22%31.06%31.07%31.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.033.053.3034.72%32.97%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América de Cali (Local): 43.34%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 25.59%; Draw: 31.07%. For CA Tigre BA (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.78%EV -9.85%E -4.74%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%EV +4.92%E +1.20%K +1.59%G +0.078%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV +2.53%E +0.766%K +1.10%G +0.028%2.8%2026-05-19 19:50
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -11.15%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.47%EV +3.64%E +0.898%K +1.19%G +0.043%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -2.13%E -0.677%K -0.992%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-19 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -13.32%E -6.66%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +1.08%E +0.273%K +0.365%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -0.580%E -0.181%K -0.263%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-19 19:50
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -13.32%E -6.66%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +1.08%E +0.273%K +0.365%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -0.580%E -0.181%K -0.263%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-19 19:50
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -13.32%E -6.66%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +1.08%E +0.273%K +0.365%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -0.580%E -0.181%K -0.263%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-19 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -13.32%E -6.66%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV +1.08%E +0.273%K +0.365%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -0.580%E -0.181%K -0.263%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-19 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.94%EV -16.35%E -8.47%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -2.76%E -0.727%K -0.986%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -3.69%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-19 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.94%EV -16.35%E -8.47%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -2.76%E -0.727%K -0.986%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -3.69%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-19 19:50
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.94%EV -16.35%E -8.47%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -2.76%E -0.727%K -0.986%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -3.69%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-19 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.94%EV -16.35%E -8.47%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -2.76%E -0.727%K -0.986%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -3.69%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-19 19:50
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.66%EV -5.51%E -2.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.24%EV -3.53%E -0.936%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.10%EV -4.93%E -1.61%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-19 22:59
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -6.60%E -1.81%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.24%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-19 22:59
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.24%E -1.72%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-19 22:59
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.98%E -4.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -6.79%E -2.26%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-19 21:30
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -11.15%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -9.90%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-19 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -11.15%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -7.88%E -2.19%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -9.90%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-19 21:40
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -5.51%E -2.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -9.16%E -2.58%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.19%EV -7.41%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-19 21:20
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.52%E -3.65%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-19 22:59
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.52%E -3.65%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-19 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.52%E -3.65%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-19 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -4.65%E -2.11%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.52%E -3.65%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-19 22:59
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.15%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -10.44%E -2.98%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.52%E -3.65%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-19 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -11.15%E -5.44%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.00%E -3.82%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -9.90%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-19 22:58
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -6.82%E -3.17%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -16.83%E -5.18%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -9.90%E -3.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-19 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.33%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%1.2%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.24%1.6%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.23%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.24%1.6%2026-05-19 22:59
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.13%2.0%2026-05-19 22:59