The School of Odds
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Alianza Atlético v Macará

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 02:00 UTC

Final: Alianza Atlético 0–2 Macará

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alianza Atlético (Local)

Prediction 39.80%2.51fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.63%39.67%39.81%41.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.312.332.4046.51%43.26%42.92%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Macará (Visit)

Prediction 27.88%3.59fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -0.854%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.60%28.12%27.82%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.303.333.5132.26%30.27%30.08%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.32%3.09fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.465%
Kelly -0.692%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%32.21%32.37%32.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.902.903.0536.36%34.46%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alianza Atlético (Local): 39.80%; Macará (Visit): 27.88%; Draw: 32.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -1.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.44%EV -4.48%E -1.87%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -2.42%E -0.692%K -0.969%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV -1.42%E -0.465%K -0.692%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-01 01:49
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -4.48%E -1.87%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-01 01:54
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.85%EV -4.88%E -2.04%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.76%EV -4.37%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.39%EV -4.97%E -1.69%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 01:55
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83%EV -5.28%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.48%EV -3.82%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.69%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:15
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -5.28%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -10.79%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-01 01:44
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.28%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 01:44
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.28%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 01:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.28%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 01:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -5.28%E -2.22%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-01 01:44
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.27%EV -6.07%E -2.57%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.07%EV -2.14%E -0.611%K -0.854%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.66%EV -5.94%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-01 01:49
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%EV -7.27%E -3.12%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 01:49
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%EV -7.27%E -3.12%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 01:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%EV -7.27%E -3.12%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 01:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.62%EV -7.27%E -3.12%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 01:50
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -8.46%E -3.68%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -3.82%E -1.11%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.27%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-01 01:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -8.46%E -3.68%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -6.60%E -1.97%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -4.65%E -1.58%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-01 01:34
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.46%E -3.68%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -13.57%E -4.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.04%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-01 01:50
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.45%E -4.65%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.50%E -3.39%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 01:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -10.45%E -4.65%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -9.39%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 01:25
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -10.45%E -4.65%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -9.39%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 01:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -10.45%E -4.65%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -9.39%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 01:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -10.45%E -4.65%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -9.39%E -2.89%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -6.91%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 01:25
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -10.45%E -4.65%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.79%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-01 01:40
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -12.44%E -5.66%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -5.21%E -1.53%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.50%E -3.39%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-01 01:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.44%E -5.66%K -10.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -8.00%E -2.42%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -11.12%E -4.04%K -6.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-01 01:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -14.43%E -6.71%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -10.79%E -3.37%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -9.50%E -3.39%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-01 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-05-01 01:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%1.1%2026-05-01 01:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%1.1%2026-05-01 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%1.1%2026-05-01 01:50
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.54%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43%2.8%2026-05-01 01:54