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預設模型四分位數間平均值 (精選名單)
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Alianza Atlético v Deportivo Garcilaso

開賽時間： 2026-03-04 02:00 UTC

收盤賠率 — 在所選模型下，根據開賽前最後記錄的價格計算所得的機率與期望值。賽事已經開始，因此這些並非即時數據。 以所有已結算賽事的實際結果評估各模型機率預測的可靠度 →

獨贏

22 家博彩公司 (5 家納入分析 )

模型估計的各結果發生機率：四分位數間平均值 (精選名單)

Alianza Atlético (主隊)

預測 42.95%2.33公平賠率
EV -2.49%
優勢 -1.10%
Kelly -1.96%
成長率 +0.000%

假設最高賠率為 2.27

博彩公司預測分布
41.42%42.92%42.94%46.12%最小值平均值中位數最大值
賠率分布
1.952.102.102.2751.28%47.71%47.51%44.05%最小值平均值中位數最大值

Deportivo Garcilaso (客隊)

預測 25.87%3.87公平賠率
EV +3.49%
優勢 +0.873%
Kelly +1.16%
成長率 +0.041%

假設最高賠率為 4.00

博彩公司預測分布
23.60%25.73%25.94%26.33%最小值平均值中位數最大值
賠率分布
3.503.773.814.0028.57%26.56%26.25%25.00%最小值平均值中位數最大值

和局

預測 31.17%3.21公平賠率
EV -1.81%
優勢 -0.573%
Kelly -0.840%
成長率 +0.000%

假設最高賠率為 3.15

博彩公司預測分布
29.71%31.34%31.12%32.69%最小值平均值中位數最大值
賠率分布
2.803.013.003.1535.71%33.23%33.33%31.75%最小值平均值中位數最大值

依開賽前最後一組賠率，四分位數間平均值 (精選名單)對獨贏的機率估計為：Alianza Atlético (主隊)：42.95%；Deportivo Garcilaso (客隊)：25.87%；和局：31.17%。 對於「Deportivo Garcilaso (客隊)」，該估計相當於3.87的公平十進位賠率。 當時有6家博彩公司提供高於該水準的收盤賠率；最佳賠率為4.00，對應+3.49%的正期望值。

博彩公司賠率 (22 家博彩公司)

本站與任何博彩公司均無關聯，也不會從使用者與其進行的任何操作中獲利。

博彩公司主隊客隊 ▼和局利潤率更新時間
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.86%EV -10.66%E -5.12%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV +3.49%E +0.873%K +1.16%G +0.041%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -1.81%E -0.573%K -0.840%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 23:15
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -11.94%E -5.83%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV +2.20%E +0.556%K +0.745%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -1.81%E -0.573%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 01:25
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -11.94%E -5.83%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV +2.20%E +0.556%K +0.745%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -1.81%E -0.573%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 01:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -11.94%E -5.83%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV +2.20%E +0.556%K +0.745%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -1.81%E -0.573%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 01:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.09%EV -11.94%E -5.83%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV +2.20%E +0.556%K +0.745%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -1.81%E -0.573%K -0.840%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 01:25
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.77%EV -2.49%E -1.10%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.77%EV +1.42%E +0.363%K +0.487%G +0.007%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.47%EV -6.79%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-04 01:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -14.09%E -7.05%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -0.390%E -0.101%K -0.137%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -4.92%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-04 01:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.99%EV -14.95%E -7.55%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -0.390%E -0.101%K -0.137%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-04 01:25
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.12%EV -15.38%E -7.81%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -0.390%E -0.101%K -0.137%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 01:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.12%EV -15.38%E -7.81%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -0.390%E -0.101%K -0.137%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-04 01:25
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -8.51%E -3.99%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.67%EV -1.17%E -0.305%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.10%EV -5.55%E -1.83%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-04 01:55
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -14.09%E -7.05%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -1.68%E -0.443%K -0.601%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -3.36%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-04 01:34
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -16.24%E -8.33%K -17.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -2.98%E -0.794%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-04 01:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 01:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -4.27%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-04 01:35
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.86%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.36%E -1.09%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 01:55
Coolbet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -6.86%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -6.48%E -2.16%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 22:45
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.86%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.92%E -1.61%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-04 01:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.65%E -3.56%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -6.86%E -1.90%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -8.04%E -2.73%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 01:10
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -6.36%E -2.92%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -8.15%E -2.30%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.19%EV -7.10%E -2.38%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 01:45
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 01:55
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -5.50%E -2.50%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -9.45%E -2.70%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -12.72%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-04 01:55
利潤率 = 利潤率（超額機率） · I = 隱含機率 · NM = 無利潤率機率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 優勢 · K = Kelly 準則 · G = 投注資金成長率

更新時間 表示各家公司最後一次調整賠率的時間，因此較早的時間只代表賠率未再變動，不表示價格已失效。通常會排除約 15 分鐘內未收到資料的博彩公司；只有當整個市場的資料來源均停止更新時，才改為顯示最新記錄的價格。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主隊客隊和局利潤率 ▲更新時間
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%0.5%2026-03-04 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.40%1.2%2026-03-04 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.40%1.2%2026-03-04 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.40%1.2%2026-03-04 01:55
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.80%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.92%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28%1.6%2026-03-04 01:55