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Alianza Atlético v CA Tigre BA
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alianza Atlético (Local)
Prediction 18.69%5.35fair odd
EV +0.731%
Edge +0.136%
Kelly +0.167%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 5.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.59%18.74%18.72%20.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.704.844.805.3921.28%20.67%20.83%18.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
CA Tigre BA (Visit)
Prediction 51.41%1.95fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.36%51.36%52.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.791.771.9059.17%55.88%56.50%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.90%3.34fair odd
EV +0.171%
Edge +0.051%
Kelly +0.073%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.96%29.90%29.92%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.103.3534.48%32.19%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alianza Atlético (Local): 18.69%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 51.41%; Draw: 29.90%. For Alianza Atlético (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.731%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.59%EV +0.731%E +0.136%K +0.167%G +0.001% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.39%EV -6.95%E -3.84%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.01%EV -5.51%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-08 01:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.46%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.49%EV -2.84%E -1.50%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV +0.171%E +0.051%K +0.073%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.36%EV -5.92%E -3.24%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-08 01:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.53%EV -7.46%E -4.15%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-08 01:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.17%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-08 01:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.30%EV -5.41%E -2.94%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.82%E -0.867%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.92%E -3.24%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -2.82%E -0.867%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.92%E -3.24%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -2.82%E -0.867%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -5.92%E -3.24%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -2.82%E -0.867%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.34%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-08 01:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.34%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.34%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.34%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -10.29%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.62%EV -11.06%E -6.39%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.16%EV -2.32%E -1.22%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 22:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.52%EV -11.06%E -6.39%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-08 01:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -12.16%E -2.59%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -4.89%E -2.64%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -8.80%E -2.88%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -12.16%E -2.59%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.31%EV -7.98%E -4.46%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.15%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-08 01:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -12.16%E -2.59%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.35%EV -9.01%E -5.09%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -12.16%E -2.59%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.35%EV -9.01%E -5.09%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-08 01:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -12.16%E -2.59%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.35%EV -9.01%E -5.09%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.51%EV -12.16%E -2.59%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 51.48%EV -13.12%E -7.76%K -19.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.00%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-08 01:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.42% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.38% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20% | 0.7% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.62% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.82% | 1.6% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.57% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.62% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.82% | 1.6% | 2026-04-08 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.55% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.12% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 1.8% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.68% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.85% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.47% | 2.8% | 2026-04-08 01:55 |