Language:English
Platense v Peñarol Montevideo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Platense (Local)
Prediction 43.56%2.30fair odd
EV +0.195%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.150%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.21%43.49%43.58%45.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.3050.00%46.61%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Peñarol Montevideo (Visit)
Prediction 23.64%4.23fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +0.964%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 4.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.57%23.75%23.58%25.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.904.4127.78%25.70%25.64%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.80%3.05fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.536%
Kelly -0.803%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.74%32.77%32.84%33.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.832.863.0040.00%35.33%34.97%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Platense (Local): 43.56%; Peñarol Montevideo (Visit): 23.64%; Draw: 32.80%. For Peñarol Montevideo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.29%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.41I 22.68%NM 21.57%EV +4.25%E +0.964%K +1.25%G +0.053% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.14%EV -5.87%E -2.05%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 21:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -0.715%E -0.170%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -5.47%E -2.52%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.79%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.31%EV -6.20%E -2.17%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 21:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -5.47%E -2.52%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.79%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.31%EV -6.20%E -2.17%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 21:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.26%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.93%EV -1.90%E -0.457%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.81%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 21:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.12%EV -5.90%E -2.73%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.13%EV -2.61%E -0.633%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.75%EV -4.56%E -1.57%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.43%EV -2.84%E -0.692%K -0.914%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.20%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.14%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -3.08%E -0.751%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 21:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.44%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 21:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.44%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -6.53%E -2.29%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.38%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.44%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 21:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -7.65%E -3.61%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -5.44%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 21:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.44%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -7.65%E -3.61%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -6.62%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 21:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.44%EV +0.195%E +0.085%K +0.150%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -1.61%E -0.536%K -0.803%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.44%EV +0.195%E +0.085%K +0.150%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.54%EV -1.61%E -0.536%K -0.803%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.58%EV -8.08%E -3.83%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.84%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-07 21:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-07 21:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-07 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -7.81%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-07 21:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.90%EV -9.82%E -4.75%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 23.42%EV -8.28%E -2.13%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 32.69%EV -8.82%E -3.17%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-07 21:46 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -10.17%E -2.68%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 21:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -10.17%E -2.68%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 21:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.17%E -2.68%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -9.81%E -3.57%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.11%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.22%EV -10.17%E -2.68%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.67%EV -11.45%E -4.24%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.31%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.89%E -1.68%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -2.85%E -1.28%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.69%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-07 21:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -11.35%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -6.53%E -2.29%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.62%EV -5.03%E -2.31%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -12.53%E -3.39%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -5.54%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -13.72%E -3.76%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -13.72%E -3.76%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -13.72%E -3.76%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -8.17%E -2.92%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-07 21:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.81%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -14.90%E -4.14%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -9.81%E -3.57%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-07 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.45%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.58%EV -14.90%E -4.14%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.96%EV -18.01%E -7.20%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.88% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.93% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 21:50 |