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Independiente Santa Fe v Peñarol Montevideo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 39.65%2.52fair odd
EV -0.867%
Edge -0.347%
Kelly -0.578%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.61%39.74%39.09%42.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.252.5046.51%44.12%44.44%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Peñarol Montevideo (Visit)
Prediction 30.18%3.31fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.510%
Kelly +0.725%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 3.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.44%30.08%30.64%31.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.043.003.3737.04%32.88%33.33%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.16%3.32fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.18%30.27%32.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.633.003.053.2138.02%33.38%32.79%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Santa Fe (Local): 39.65%; Peñarol Montevideo (Visit): 30.18%; Draw: 30.16%. For Peñarol Montevideo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.37, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.68%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV +1.72%E +0.510%K +0.725%G +0.012% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.87%EV -3.18%E -0.989%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-23 23:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.65%EV -11.18%E -4.99%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -0.999%E -0.305%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.90%EV -5.89%E -1.89%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-23 23:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 03:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-20 06:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -0.867%E -0.347%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -6.43%E -2.07%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-22 16:31 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -0.867%E -0.347%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -4.98%E -1.58%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 17:12 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.49%E -2.09%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 15:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.51%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-20 12:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-22 13:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-22 13:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-22 13:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.83%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-22 13:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.51%E -3.17%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-20 18:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-23 15:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-23 15:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-23 15:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.80%E -3.83%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -9.45%E -3.15%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-23 16:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.31%EV -12.76%E -5.80%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.34%EV -13.98%E -4.90%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.34%EV -14.03%E -4.92%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-03-20 12:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.10%EV -12.76%E -5.80%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 30.40%EV -14.58%E -5.15%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.50%EV -14.94%E -5.30%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-03-20 05:53 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -10.78%E -4.79%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -15.49%E -5.53%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -12.53%E -4.32%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-20 05:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 37.61%EV -10.78%E -4.79%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.22%EV -15.49%E -5.53%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.17%EV -20.67%E -7.86%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 18.2% | 2026-03-23 12:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 39.00%EV -14.75%E -6.86%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.05%EV -18.51%E -6.85%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.95%EV -15.54%E -5.55%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 19.3% | 2026-03-20 05:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.