Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Independiente Rivadavia v Fluminense-RJ

Início: 2026-08-18 22:00 UTC

Final: Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense-RJ

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Previsão 38.36%2.61odd justa
EV -0.255%
Vantagem -0.098%
Kelly -0.159%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
36.35%38.39%38.27%39.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.252.422.412.6044.44%41.33%41.58%38.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fluminense-RJ (Visitante)

Previsão 29.39%3.40odd justa
EV -0.070%
Vantagem -0.021%
Kelly -0.029%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.11%29.40%29.50%30.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.153.103.4034.48%31.78%32.26%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 32.25%3.10odd justa
EV -1.97%
Vantagem -0.649%
Kelly -0.968%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.72%32.21%32.23%33.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.702.852.813.0437.04%35.04%35.59%32.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 38.36%; Fluminense-RJ (Visitante): 29.39%; Empate: 32.25%. Para Fluminense-RJ (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.402. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.400, com valor esperado de -0.070%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.46%EV -0.255%E -0.098%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.52%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.02%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-18 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.46%EV -0.255%E -0.098%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.52%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.02%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-18 18:15
Suprabets🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.35%EV -1.41%E -0.547%K -0.895%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.53%EV -10.06%E -3.29%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.13%EV -9.07%E -3.22%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-18 21:14
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.17%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.91%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-18 21:50
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-18 21:35
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-18 21:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-18 21:35
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.23%EV -4.86%E -1.96%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.79%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-18 21:35
GTbets🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.44%EV -5.63%E -2.29%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.93%EV -7.12%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.63%EV -3.59%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-18 21:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.06%EV -5.63%E -2.29%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-18 21:40
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 21:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -3.26%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-18 21:45
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-18 21:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-18 21:40
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.87%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-18 21:35
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-18 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-18 21:35
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.65%EV -6.78%E -2.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.34%EV -0.070%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.01%EV -2.94%E -0.977%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-18 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.31%EV -6.78%E -2.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.72%EV -10.36%E -3.40%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-18 21:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -7.16%E -2.96%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.11%EV -0.364%E -0.107%K -0.152%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.52%EV -5.52%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 21:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -7.16%E -2.96%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.11%EV -0.364%E -0.107%K -0.152%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.52%EV -5.52%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 21:45
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -7.16%E -2.96%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -10.36%E -3.73%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-18 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -7.16%E -2.96%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -10.36%E -3.73%K -5.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-18 21:55
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.46%EV -7.54%E -3.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.28%EV -1.97%E -0.649%K -0.968%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-18 21:55
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -3.01%E -0.912%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-18 21:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -5.95%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-18 21:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -7.13%E -2.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-18 21:55
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.58%EV -7.42%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-18 21:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-18 21:45
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-18 21:55
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -7.13%E -2.48%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-18 21:45
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 21:50
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -9.71%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-18 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-18 21:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-18 21:45
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -8.69%E -3.65%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -4.48%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-18 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -8.69%E -3.65%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.94%E -4.79%K -7.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -8.69%E -3.65%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.94%E -4.79%K -7.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 18:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -8.69%E -3.65%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.94%E -4.79%K -7.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.85%E -4.19%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -13.30%E -4.51%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -4.88%E -1.65%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-18 21:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -9.85%E -4.19%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -14.77%E -5.09%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-18 21:40
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.76%E -5.11%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-18 21:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.76%E -5.11%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-18 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.76%E -5.11%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-18 21:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -11.76%E -5.11%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.89%E -2.87%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.33%E -4.12%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-18 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -13.68%E -6.08%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.83%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-18 21:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.71%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.54%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.75%0.1%2026-08-18 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.65%0.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.65%0.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.45%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.65%0.4%2026-08-18 21:50