The School of Odds
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Coquimbo Unido v Nacional de Montevideo

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coquimbo Unido (Local)

Prediction 40.69%2.46fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.686%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.79%40.57%42.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.292.5047.62%43.68%43.76%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nacional de Montevideo (Visit)

Prediction 26.82%3.73fair odd
EV +4.61%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.073%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%26.64%27.05%28.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.403.9032.26%28.99%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%32.57%32.38%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.843.0037.04%35.29%35.21%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Coquimbo Unido (Local): 40.69%; Nacional de Montevideo (Visit): 26.82%; Draw: 32.49%. For Nacional de Montevideo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.02%EV -6.83%E -2.98%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV +4.61%E +1.18%K +1.59%G +0.073%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.30%EV -6.10%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-08 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.80%EV -7.24%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV +3.27%E +0.848%K +1.15%G +0.037%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.80%EV -7.24%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV +3.27%E +0.848%K +1.15%G +0.037%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 21:55
BetUS🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.80%EV -7.24%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV +3.27%E +0.848%K +1.15%G +0.037%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.44%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-08 21:55
Suprabets🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.72%EV -8.86%E -3.96%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.79%EV +1.12%E +0.297%K +0.404%G +0.005%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.49%EV -9.35%E -3.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 21:48
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.08%EV -9.68%E -4.36%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.758%E -0.205%K -0.281%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.67%EV -7.07%E -2.47%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 21:55
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -0.758%E -0.205%K -0.281%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 21:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.66%EV -8.86%E -3.96%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.36%EV -1.29%E -0.352%K -0.483%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.98%EV -8.05%E -2.84%K -4.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 21:50
GTbets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -4.39%E -1.87%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.19%EV -2.64%E -0.726%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.36%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 21:49
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.46%E -3.76%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -6.42%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 21:50
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.61%EV -7.24%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-08 21:44
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.94%EV -2.35%E -0.980%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.00%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.06%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-08 21:49
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.80%EV -7.24%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -8.37%E -2.97%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-08 21:45
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.80%EV -7.24%E -3.17%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -8.37%E -2.97%K -4.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-08 21:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-08 21:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-08 21:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-08 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-08 21:55
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -12.27%E -4.55%K -7.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-08 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.09%EV +1.72%E +0.686%K +1.14%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -2.53%E -0.842%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-08 21:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.09%EV +1.72%E +0.686%K +1.14%G +0.020%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%EV -2.53%E -0.842%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-08 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -4.15%E -1.41%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-08 21:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 21:45
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 21:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.42%E -2.79%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 21:55
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.51%EV -3.17%E -1.33%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -10.15%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-08 21:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.42%EV -7.64%E -3.37%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -10.15%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 21:45
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -2.35%E -0.980%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 21:50
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -2.35%E -0.980%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 21:50
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -2.35%E -0.980%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 21:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -2.35%E -0.980%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -2.35%E -0.980%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -6.42%E -2.23%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-08 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-08 21:44
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-08 21:44
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.49%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-08 21:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -11.30%E -5.19%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.20%EV -12.02%E -3.67%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-08 21:43
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -10.49%E -4.77%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -5.77%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-08 21:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.06%EV -5.20%E -2.23%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-08 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.06%EV -5.20%E -2.23%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-08 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.06%EV -5.20%E -2.23%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-08 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -12.52%E -5.83%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -14.17%E -4.43%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -10.65%E -3.87%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-08 21:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -12.52%E -5.83%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -15.51%E -4.92%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -9.02%E -3.22%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-08 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -14.56%E -6.93%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -16.85%E -5.44%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -12.27%E -4.55%K -7.22%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-08 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-04-08 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-04-08 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.06%0.8%2026-04-08 21:55
Smarkets◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.41%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.77%2.4%2026-04-08 21:55