Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nashville SC v León

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 00:40 UTC

Final: Nashville SC 0–1 León

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nashville SC (Local)

Prediction 40.30%2.48fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.16%40.40%40.29%42.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.262.252.4045.45%44.16%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 32.01%3.12fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.568%
Kelly +0.829%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.82%31.92%32.01%32.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.953.1837.04%34.28%33.90%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.68%3.61fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%27.68%27.70%29.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.413.5033.33%29.61%29.33%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nashville SC (Local): 40.30%; León (Visit): 32.01%; Draw: 27.68%. For León (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.82%EV +1.81%E +0.568%K +0.829%G +0.015%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.65%EV -5.05%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 00:25
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -0.754%E -0.243%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 00:15
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.13%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.79%EV -2.99%E -0.988%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.08%EV -5.05%E -1.47%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-06 00:20
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.23%EV -3.27%E -1.36%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.18%EV -3.96%E -1.32%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-06 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.34%EV -4.89%E -2.07%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -3.96%E -1.32%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.92%EV -5.60%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 00:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.34%EV -4.89%E -2.07%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -3.96%E -1.32%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.92%EV -5.60%E -1.64%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 00:15
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -5.29%E -2.25%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-06 00:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 00:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -10.13%E -4.54%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.11%E -0.889%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 00:20
Dabble (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 00:25
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.56%E -1.88%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -10.03%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-06 00:25
Caesars🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -5.29%E -2.25%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.16%E -2.47%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 00:15
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -5.29%E -2.25%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -7.16%E -2.47%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-06 00:18
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.16%E -2.47%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-06 00:10
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -7.16%E -2.47%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-06 00:15
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.29%E -2.25%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -7.80%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 00:20
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.29%E -2.25%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -7.80%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 00:20
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -7.80%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-06 00:25
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.80%E -2.71%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-06 00:25
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.30%E -3.18%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -8.76%E -3.07%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -7.26%E -2.17%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 00:15
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.36%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-06 00:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.36%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -16.95%E -5.65%K -8.48%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-06 00:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.36%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -16.95%E -5.65%K -8.48%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-06 00:25
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.36%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -16.95%E -5.65%K -8.48%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-06 00:25
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.36%E -3.70%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -16.95%E -5.65%K -8.48%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-06 00:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -11.96%E -4.35%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -5.88%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-06 00:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -9.32%E -4.14%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -11.96%E -4.35%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -11.42%E -3.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-06 00:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -11.33%E -5.15%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.56%E -5.02%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -8.65%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-08-06 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-08-06 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-08-06 00:25
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-08-06 00:25

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