The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Monterrey v Orlando City SC

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 00:55 UTC

Final: Monterrey 1–2 Orlando City SC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 36.11%2.77fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.89%36.11%36.11%36.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.572.602.7041.67%38.93%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando City SC (Visit)

Prediction 40.01%2.50fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.02%40.05%40.05%40.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.342.382.4046.51%42.79%42.02%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.88%4.19fair odd
EV +0.294%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.092%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.71%23.84%23.85%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.833.854.2028.17%26.10%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Monterrey (Local): 36.11%; Orlando City SC (Visit): 40.01%; Draw: 23.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.294%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.69%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.59%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV +0.294%E +0.070%K +0.092%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 00:40
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.28%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.14%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -4.48%E -1.12%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 00:20
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -2.50%E -0.925%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -6.87%E -1.76%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 00:18
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -6.87%E -1.76%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-06 00:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.47%EV -4.78%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-06 00:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -7.92%E -3.10%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.50%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -8.06%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 00:45
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.92%E -3.10%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -9.26%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-06 00:40
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -9.26%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-06 00:45
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.26%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-06 00:35
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.26%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-06 00:35
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.13%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -9.26%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-06 00:54
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -11.53%E -4.70%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -11.98%E -5.45%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -9.26%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-06 00:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -6.11%E -2.35%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -3.98%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -10.45%E -2.79%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-06 00:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.08%EV -9.72%E -3.89%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.21%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -12.84%E -3.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-06 00:30
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.93%EV -13.33%E -5.56%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.11%EV -13.98%E -6.50%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%EV -14.03%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-06 00:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -11.53%E -4.70%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -11.98%E -5.45%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.61%EV -15.23%E -4.29%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-06 00:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.25%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.41%1.7%2026-08-06 00:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.25%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.41%1.7%2026-08-06 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.04%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.85%2.3%2026-08-06 00:50
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%9.8%2026-08-06 00:50

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