The School of Odds
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Monterrey v Orlando City SC

2026-08-05 23:30 UTC — Leagues Cup

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Monterrey (Local)

Prediction 37.18%2.69fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.36%37.28%36.86%38.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.472.452.6041.67%40.44%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando City SC (Visit)

Prediction 38.11%2.62fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.96%37.96%38.08%38.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.392.432.402.5041.84%41.18%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.289%
Kelly -0.385%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.44%24.76%25.05%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.704.0029.41%27.20%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Monterrey (Local): 37.18%; Orlando City SC (Visit): 38.11%; Draw: 24.71%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.00, with an expected value of -1.16%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.33%E -1.28%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.18%EV -4.73%E -1.89%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -6.10%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 16:34
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.36%EV -4.07%E -1.58%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 16:34
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.36%EV -4.07%E -1.58%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -8.57%E -2.32%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 16:34
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -7.05%E -2.82%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -4.73%E -1.89%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.16%E -0.289%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 16:35
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.07%EV -7.05%E -2.82%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.14%EV -7.40%E -3.04%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.78%EV -7.58%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 19:10
ReBet2.49I 40.16%NM 36.58%EV -7.42%E -2.98%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.11%EV -8.92%E -3.73%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -11.04%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 16:35
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -8.91%E -3.64%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -6.63%E -2.71%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.16%E -0.289%K -0.385%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 16:34
Dabble (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.39%EV -8.91%E -3.64%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.17%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -7.33%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 16:35
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%EV -10.77%E -4.49%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.24%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -3.63%E -0.930%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 16:35
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.77%E -4.49%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 16:34
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.77%E -4.49%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 17:29
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.77%E -4.49%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 17:35
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.77%E -4.49%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -8.54%E -3.56%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -15.98%E -4.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-02 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 36.44%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.56%13.4%2026-08-02 16:35