Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Los Angeles FC v Querétaro

Kickoff: 2026-08-13 02:30 UTC

Final: Los Angeles FC 1–1 Querétaro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Los Angeles FC (Local)

Prediction 71.91%1.39fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -3.85%
Kelly -15.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.64%71.84%71.95%73.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.291.3280.00%77.81%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Querétaro (Visit)

Prediction 11.09%9.02fair odd
EV +10.89%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.132%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.38%11.12%10.89%12.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.098.0010.0014.29%12.37%12.50%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.00%5.88fair odd
EV +11.89%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.253%

assuming max odds 6.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.40%17.04%17.16%18.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.525.556.5820.00%18.12%18.02%15.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Los Angeles FC (Local): 71.91%; Querétaro (Visit): 11.09%; Draw: 17.00%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.90%EV -6.52%E -5.02%K -21.74%G +0.000%7.46I 13.40%NM 12.70%EV -17.28%E -2.32%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.58I 15.20%NM 14.40%EV +11.89%E +1.81%K +2.13%G +0.253%5.5%2026-08-13 02:24
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.58%EV -8.68%E -6.83%K -32.14%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV -1.38%E -0.237%K -0.286%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-13 02:19
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.37%EV -6.52%E -5.02%K -21.74%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +5.34%E +0.563%K +0.629%G +0.034%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-13 02:14
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -5.80%E -4.43%K -18.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 02:25
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -6.52%E -5.02%K -21.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-13 02:24
TABtouch🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Casumo🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Bally Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:24
betPARX🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -2.23%E -0.387%K -0.468%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-13 02:25
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.12%EV -5.80%E -4.43%K -18.72%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.10%EV -14.62%E -1.90%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -5.63%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-13 02:25
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.12%EV -5.80%E -4.43%K -18.72%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.10%EV -14.62%E -1.90%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.79%EV -5.63%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-13 02:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.08%E -3.85%K -15.88%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.68%EV -1.31%E -0.147%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-13 02:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.08%E -3.85%K -15.88%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.68%EV -1.31%E -0.147%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-13 02:15
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.34%EV -5.80%E -4.43%K -18.72%G +0.000%9.08I 11.01%NM 10.44%EV +0.687%E +0.076%K +0.085%G +0.001%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-13 02:15
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -5.80%E -4.43%K -18.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -0.200%E -0.022%K -0.025%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 02:15
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -8.68%E -6.83%K -32.14%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.12%EV -8.52%E -1.03%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 02:19
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -5.74%E -0.676%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-13 02:19
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -5.74%E -0.676%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-13 02:24
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -5.74%E -0.676%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -6.48%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-13 02:24
Fliff🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.42%EV -7.96%E -6.22%K -28.43%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 11.65%EV -12.95%E -1.65%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.93%EV -8.18%E -1.51%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-13 02:25
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +10.89%E +1.09%K +1.21%G +0.132%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -10.73%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-13 02:08
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -6.52%E -5.02%K -21.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -5.74%E -0.676%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -10.73%E -2.04%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-13 02:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.12%EV -7.96%E -6.22%K -28.43%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -11.58%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-13 02:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.46%EV -5.08%E -3.85%K -15.88%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -5.74%E -0.676%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-13 02:15
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.64%EV -7.24%E -5.61%K -24.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.39%EV -19.61%E -2.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-13 02:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.53%EV -8.68%E -6.83%K -32.14%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.56%EV -14.06%E -1.81%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-13 02:24
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-13 02:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -11.29%E -1.41%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-13 02:15
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -22.38%E -3.20%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-13 02:19
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -22.38%E -3.20%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-13 02:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -22.38%E -3.20%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-13 02:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.12%E -8.09%K -40.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -22.38%E -3.20%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -14.98%E -3.00%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-13 02:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.46%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-08-13 02:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.46%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-08-13 02:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.46%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.55%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%0.8%2026-08-13 02:25
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 73.60%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.49%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.91%1.4%2026-08-13 02:25