Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Inter Miami CF v León

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 23:30 UTC

Final: Inter Miami CF 2–3 León

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Inter Miami CF (Local)

Prediction 51.27%1.95fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.63%51.19%51.18%54.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.841.831.9157.80%54.48%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

León (Visit)

Prediction 24.48%4.08fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.561%
Kelly +0.737%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.70%24.66%24.70%28.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.623.604.1830.77%27.63%27.78%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.24%4.13fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.260%
Kelly +0.342%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.57%24.16%24.13%25.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.913.954.1728.57%25.60%25.35%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Inter Miami CF (Local): 51.27%; León (Visit): 24.48%; Draw: 24.24%. For León (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.54%EV -10.78%E -6.20%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.70%EV +2.34%E +0.561%K +0.737%G +0.017%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.76%EV +1.08%E +0.260%K +0.342%G +0.004%5.4%2026-08-12 23:25
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV +0.385%E +0.094%K +0.124%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.88%E -2.07%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 23:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -7.71%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.53%EV -0.839%E -0.207%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.53%EV -1.82%E -0.451%K -0.598%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 23:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -7.71%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.53%EV -0.839%E -0.207%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.53%EV -1.82%E -0.451%K -0.598%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-12 23:19
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.688%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 23:25
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.69%EV -4.12%E -2.20%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.688%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-12 23:14
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -7.71%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.688%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.10%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 23:19
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.688%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-12 23:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-12 23:24
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.10%EV -3.60%E -1.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.82%EV -5.25%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.08%EV -3.28%E -0.822%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 23:15
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.59%EV -3.60%E -1.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -5.74%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 23:24
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -5.74%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 23:20
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -5.74%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-12 23:18
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 23:19
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -11.29%E -6.53%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-12 23:25
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-12 23:24
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.07%EV -6.68%E -3.67%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 23:19
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.07%EV -6.68%E -3.67%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.67%E -1.73%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-12 23:18
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.44%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -7.88%E -2.07%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 23:24
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.40%EV -9.24%E -5.22%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.11%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -15.16%E -4.33%K -6.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-12 23:19
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-12 23:23
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -6.17%E -3.37%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -10.31%E -2.79%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-12 23:23
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-12 23:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-12 23:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-12 23:25
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.73%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-12 23:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -7.71%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -14.31%E -4.09%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -5.46%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 23:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.20%EV -8.73%E -4.90%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -16.75%E -4.93%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -7.88%E -2.07%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-12 23:19
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:19
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -2.06%E -1.08%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -19.20%E -5.82%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -3.04%E -0.759%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-12 23:19
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.96%EV -3.09%E -1.64%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -20.43%E -6.28%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -0.613%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.02%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-08-12 23:25
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 52.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-08-12 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 52.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-08-12 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 52.70%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-08-12 23:25