Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wuhan Three Towns v Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 12:00 UTC

Final: Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wuhan Three Towns (Local)

Prediction 13.96%7.17fair odd
EV +1.18%
Edge +0.162%
Kelly +0.188%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.87%13.91%14.06%15.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.546.507.2518.18%15.28%15.38%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit)

Prediction 66.45%1.50fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.11%66.43%66.37%67.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.391.401.4775.76%71.75%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.60%5.10fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.401%
Kelly -0.501%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.15%19.66%19.57%22.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.594.605.0026.67%21.80%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wuhan Three Towns (Local): 13.96%; Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visit): 66.45%; Draw: 19.60%. For Wuhan Three Towns (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV +1.18%E +0.162%K +0.188%G +0.002%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -6.90%E -1.45%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 11:45
Marathon Bet🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.87%EV +0.479%E +0.067%K +0.077%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.63%EV -8.97%E -6.55%K -24.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -6.90%E -1.45%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-17 11:54
Pinnacle🎯7.09I 14.10%NM 13.49%EV -1.06%E -0.149%K -0.173%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.88%EV -4.98%E -3.48%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.64%EV -4.55%E -0.935%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -6.90%E -1.45%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 11:35
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 11:54
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 11:54
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 11:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-17 11:54
Bet Right🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -8.31%E -6.02%K -21.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 11:44
Bet Victor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -6.90%E -1.45%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 11:28
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -2.31%E -0.330%K -0.385%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-17 11:44
1xBet🎯6.99I 14.31%NM 13.39%EV -2.45%E -0.351%K -0.409%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.84%EV -8.31%E -6.02%K -21.86%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.76%EV -2.20%E -0.441%K -0.551%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 11:54
LowVig.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.88%EV -5.10%E -0.750%K -0.880%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.46%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -5.92%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 11:34
BetOnline.ag🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.88%EV -5.10%E -0.750%K -0.880%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.46%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -5.92%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 11:35
GTbets🎯6.79I 14.73%NM 14.21%EV -5.24%E -0.772%K -0.905%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.62%EV -2.33%E -1.58%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.18%EV -6.32%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-17 11:44
Bovada🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -5.80%E -0.859%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -6.90%E -1.45%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 11:53
BetUS🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -5.80%E -0.859%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -6.90%E -1.45%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 11:54
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.88%EV -4.98%E -3.48%K -11.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -5.92%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 11:44
NordicBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.06%EV -8.31%E -6.02%K -21.86%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -2.98%E -0.603%K -0.755%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 11:49
Betsson🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.06%EV -8.31%E -6.02%K -21.86%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.70%EV -2.98%E -0.603%K -0.755%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 11:49
SportsBet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 11:29
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 11:30
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -11.80%E -2.62%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 11:29
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.84%EV -8.97%E -6.55%K -24.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -5.92%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 11:49
PlayUp🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.89%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -15.72%E -3.66%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 11:54
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 11:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -9.29%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 11:49
BetRivers🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:40
LeoVegas🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:40
Unibet (NL)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:40
TABtouch🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:40
Grosvenor🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:39
Unibet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:39
Unibet (SE)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:39
betPARX🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.36%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -5.65%E -3.98%K -13.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-13 05:40
Codere (IT)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.28%EV -10.69%E -1.67%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.69%EV -8.97%E -6.55%K -24.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.03%EV -5.92%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-17 11:54
Everygame🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -12.78%E -2.04%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 11:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -12.78%E -2.04%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.68%EV -6.31%E -4.48%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -13.76%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-13 05:39
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.79%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.46%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.75%EV -14.74%E -3.39%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-13 05:39
LiveScore Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.79%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.46%EV -6.98%E -4.98%K -17.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.75%EV -14.74%E -3.39%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-13 05:40
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.39%EV -14.87%E -2.44%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.52%EV -12.29%E -9.31%K -38.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.09%EV -9.84%E -2.14%K -2.73%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-17 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -2.00%E -0.401%K -0.501%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 11:49
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -11.80%E -2.62%K -3.37%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-17 11:29
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.61%EV -16.27%E -2.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.91%EV -11.63%E -8.74%K -35.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.48%EV -11.80%E -2.62%K -3.37%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-17 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.39%EV -20.45%E -3.59%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.95%EV -11.63%E -8.74%K -35.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.66%EV -7.88%E -1.68%K -2.13%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-17 11:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.36%EV -23.25%E -4.23%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 62.11%EV -9.63%E -7.08%K -26.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.53%EV -26.50%E -7.07%K -9.64%G +0.000%18.4%2026-04-17 11:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-17 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-17 11:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-17 11:50
Matchbook7.60I 13.16%NM 13.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.49%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-17 11:49
Kalshi7.14I 14.01%NM 13.73%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.62%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.64%2.0%2026-04-17 11:54