Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC v Yunnan Yukun

Inicio: 2026-08-01 11:00 UTC

Final: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC 3–2 Yunnan Yukun

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local)

Predicción 46.58%2.15momio equitativo
EV -2.18%
Ventaja -1.04%
Kelly -1.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.86%46.29%46.59%47.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.922.022.002.1052.08%49.61%50.00%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Yunnan Yukun (Visitante)

Predicción 28.15%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.75%
Ventaja -0.501%
Kelly -0.702%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.49

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.27%28.44%28.17%31.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.203.253.4936.36%31.20%30.77%28.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.27%3.96momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -0.709%
Kelly -0.958%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.07%25.28%25.24%26.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.623.603.8528.99%27.62%27.78%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC (Local): 46.58%; Yunnan Yukun (Visitante): 28.15%; Empate: 25.27%. Para Yunnan Yukun (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.55. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.49, con un valor esperado de -1.75%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.99%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -2.73%E -0.709%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 10:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-01 10:34
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:50
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:50
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:50
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:50
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.24%EV -3.11%E -1.49%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.12%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.65%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 10:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.24%EV -3.11%E -1.49%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.12%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.65%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 10:45
BetUS🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.24%EV -3.11%E -1.49%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.12%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.65%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.11%E -1.49%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -14.13%E -4.63%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 10:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 10:34
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 10:35
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.20%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -1.75%E -0.501%K -0.702%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.21%EV -3.49%E -0.913%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 10:50
GTbets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.72%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.87%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-01 10:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.03%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -12.84%E -3.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-01 10:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.03%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.03%EV -12.84%E -3.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-01 10:50
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.09%EV -5.44%E -2.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-01 10:39
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.10%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -5.69%E -1.70%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 10:40
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 10:49
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 10:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 10:49
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 10:50
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 10:50
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 10:49
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 10:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 10:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-01 10:14
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -15.54%E -5.18%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-01 10:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -7.77%E -3.92%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 10:54
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -8.23%E -4.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.38%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.10%EV -5.76%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 10:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -8.23%E -4.18%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 10:48
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.47%EV -8.70%E -4.44%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%EV -11.32%E -3.59%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-01 10:49
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.54%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.28%E -1.26%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.19%EV -7.02%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 10:55
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 10:44
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-01 10:45
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 10:40
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-01 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-01 10:45
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.50%E -2.62%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-01 10:34
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.43%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -22.58%E -8.21%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-01 10:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.02%EV -9.63%E -4.96%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -7.10%E -2.15%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 10:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%EV -10.56%E -5.50%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.73%E -4.11%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-01 10:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-08-01 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-08-01 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%1.0%2026-08-01 10:55
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%1.0%2026-08-01 10:55
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 46.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-08-01 10:55