Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shenzhen Peng City FC v Wuhan Three Towns

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local)

Prediction 48.72%2.05fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.96%48.67%48.77%49.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.911.911.9855.87%52.46%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wuhan Three Towns (Visit)

Prediction 24.23%4.13fair odd
EV -0.665%
Edge -0.162%
Kelly -0.215%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%24.31%24.17%26.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.743.704.1028.99%26.76%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.05%3.70fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.727%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%27.02%27.06%28.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.393.403.6033.33%29.52%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shenzhen Peng City FC (Local): 48.72%; Wuhan Three Towns (Visit): 24.23%; Draw: 27.05%. For Wuhan Three Towns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -0.665%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -3.53%E -1.78%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -9.15%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 10:00
GTbets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.50%EV -4.02%E -2.04%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.19%EV -10.19%E -3.07%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 10:19
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.98%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 10:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -10.36%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:19
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:19
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:19
TABtouch🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:20
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -4.99%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -13.99%E -3.94%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:20
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.44%EV -5.48%E -2.83%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.62%EV -1.63%E -0.403%K -0.534%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.94%EV -3.70%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-05 10:55
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.21%EV -5.48%E -2.83%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-05 10:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.83%EV -5.97%E -3.09%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -0.665%E -0.162%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -2.62%E -0.727%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-05 10:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.83%EV -5.97%E -3.09%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -0.665%E -0.162%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -2.62%E -0.727%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-05 10:55
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.83%EV -5.97%E -3.09%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -0.665%E -0.162%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%EV -2.62%E -0.727%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-05 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.19%EV -5.97%E -3.09%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -15.20%E -4.34%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-05 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -6.46%E -3.36%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -16.41%E -4.76%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-05 10:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -6.46%E -3.36%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -16.41%E -4.76%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-05 10:20
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -4.30%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -3.97%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 10:19
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -3.09%E -0.772%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 10:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -6.67%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 10:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.50%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.25%EV -7.45%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 10:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-05 10:55
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-05 10:19
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -6.94%E -3.64%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-05 10:20
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.09%E -0.772%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 10:40
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.73%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 10:20
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.73%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.05%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 10:19
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -9.15%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 10:55
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -7.43%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -10.36%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 10:00
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.42%EV -7.92%E -4.19%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.59%EV -4.06%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.99%EV -6.40%E -1.85%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.51%EV -7.92%E -4.19%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -9.38%E -2.80%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-05 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.71%EV -8.40%E -4.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -10.36%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -6.67%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-05 10:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -3.09%E -0.772%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 10:28
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 10:49
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-05 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-05 10:19
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.20%EV -9.87%E -5.33%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-05 10:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -10.84%E -5.92%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.80%EV -18.85%E -6.28%K -9.42%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-05 10:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%EV -11.33%E -6.22%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -15.20%E -4.34%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-05 10:20
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.69%EV -12.30%E -6.83%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-05 10:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 48.99%EV -12.79%E -7.15%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -11.57%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-05 10:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.98%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-04-05 10:50
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-05 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-04-05 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.80%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.05%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-04-05 10:50
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-04-05 10:00