Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shanghai SIPG FC v Yunnan Yukun

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 11:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shanghai SIPG FC (Local)

Prediction 51.94%1.93fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -2.70%
Kelly -5.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%51.95%52.12%53.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.751.8359.88%56.90%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yunnan Yukun (Visit)

Prediction 25.09%3.99fair odd
EV +0.349%
Edge +0.087%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.45%25.09%25.00%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.723.754.0030.77%26.89%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.97%4.35fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.02%22.96%22.88%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.973.954.2529.41%25.21%25.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shanghai SIPG FC (Local): 51.94%; Yunnan Yukun (Visit): 25.09%; Draw: 22.97%. For Yunnan Yukun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.349%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.349%E +0.087%K +0.116%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 11:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.349%E +0.087%K +0.116%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 11:29
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.42%EV -1.41%E -0.358%K -0.480%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 11:30
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:29
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.15%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 10:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.29%EV -10.66%E -6.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -2.16%E -0.554%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.21%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 10:30
BetUS🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.59%EV -7.02%E -3.92%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -3.41%E -0.887%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 11:30
GTbets🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.07%EV -8.06%E -4.55%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -3.41%E -0.887%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.53%EV -4.22%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 11:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -11.69%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.887%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-04 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -11.69%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -3.41%E -0.887%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-04 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.62%EV -8.58%E -4.87%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.12%EV -3.67%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.27%EV -8.59%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 11:29
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.13%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.67%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 11:29
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -4.67%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 11:29
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.23%EV -7.02%E -3.92%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.80%EV -5.42%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 22.97%EV -6.52%E -1.60%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 11:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -4.94%E -2.70%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-04 11:20
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.92%E -1.58%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -3.53%E -0.841%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.64%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -7.18%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -5.83%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 11:19
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.18%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 11:19
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.18%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 11:19
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.18%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-04 11:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -2.39%E -0.561%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.01%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 11:30
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 11:29
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.86%EV -5.46%E -3.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 11:29
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -7.54%E -4.24%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 11:29
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.25%EV -8.06%E -4.55%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 11:30
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-04 11:19
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 11:29
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -11.69%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -11.69%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -9.69%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 11:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -10.94%E -3.08%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -9.28%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 11:29
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.50%E -3.61%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.19%E -3.48%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-04 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 50.80%EV -13.25%E -7.94%K -19.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.24%EV -12.19%E -3.48%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.95%EV -21.91%E -6.44%K -9.13%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-04 11:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.00%EV -7.54%E -4.24%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -13.45%E -3.90%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -8.13%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 11:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.84%EV -12.73%E -7.58%K -18.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.24%EV -13.45%E -3.90%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.92%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-04 11:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.52%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -17.21%E -5.22%K -7.48%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -11.57%E -3.01%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-04 11:29
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.75%EV -11.69%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.55%EV -18.47%E -5.68%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-04 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.16%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%0.6%2026-04-04 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-04-04 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-04-04 11:30
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-04-04 11:19
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 52.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.00%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%3.9%2026-04-04 11:29