Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shanghai SIPG FC v Henan FC

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 11:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shanghai SIPG FC (Local)

Prediction 43.77%2.28fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.669%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.12%44.04%43.81%52.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.662.052.092.3260.24%48.80%47.85%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Henan FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV +8.41%
Edge +2.29%
Kelly +3.14%
Growth +0.264%

assuming max odds 3.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.46%29.15%29.55%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.203.193.6834.48%31.25%31.35%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV +0.377%
Edge +0.101%
Kelly +0.137%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.53%26.81%26.64%28.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.463.443.7532.26%28.92%29.07%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shanghai SIPG FC (Local): 43.77%; Henan FC (Visit): 29.46%; Draw: 26.77%. For Henan FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.01%EV -27.34%E -16.47%K -41.42%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.46%EV +8.41%E +2.29%K +3.14%G +0.264%3.52I 28.41%NM 24.53%EV -5.78%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-07 11:29
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -12.45%E -6.23%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV +3.11%E +0.889%K +1.24%G +0.039%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.31%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 11:20
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -12.45%E -6.23%K -12.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV +3.11%E +0.889%K +1.24%G +0.039%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.31%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 11:20
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.76%EV -17.27%E -9.14%K -19.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV +3.11%E +0.889%K +1.24%G +0.039%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 11:27
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -14.64%E -7.51%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV +0.164%E +0.048%K +0.068%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 11:20
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.40%EV -2.82%E -1.27%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.59%EV -0.720%E -0.214%K -0.304%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.01%EV -7.92%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-07 11:30
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.54%EV -15.08%E -7.77%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 11:29
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -15.52%E -8.04%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 11:29
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -15.52%E -8.04%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 11:30
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -15.52%E -8.04%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -15.52%E -8.04%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 11:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -15.52%E -8.04%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 11:30
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -15.52%E -8.04%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -0.961%E -0.260%K -0.356%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.64%EV -15.96%E -8.31%K -17.34%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -1.31%E -0.391%K -0.557%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -2.30%E -0.630%K -0.868%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -10.27%E -5.01%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -2.78%E -0.843%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.67%EV -17.27%E -9.14%K -19.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -2.78%E -0.843%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.67%EV -17.27%E -9.14%K -19.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -2.78%E -0.843%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 11:30
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.67%EV -5.45%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.67%EV -3.08%E -0.935%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.66%EV -8.72%E -2.56%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-07 11:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.80%EV +1.12%E +0.483%K +0.851%G +0.009%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.80%EV -4.55%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 11:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.80%EV +1.12%E +0.483%K +0.851%G +0.009%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.80%EV -4.55%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-07 11:30
BetUS🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.54%EV +1.55%E +0.669%K +1.18%G +0.018%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.03%EV -5.43%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.43%EV -9.26%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-07 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -6.31%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 11:30
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 11:29
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.69%EV -4.14%E -1.89%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.31%EV -6.02%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.99%EV -10.60%E -3.17%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 11:29
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.68%EV -7.20%E -3.40%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.07%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV +0.377%E +0.101%K +0.137%G +0.001%5.6%2026-03-07 11:29
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -7.65%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 11:29
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -7.65%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 11:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.89%EV -8.51%E -4.07%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 11:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.27%EV -4.14%E -1.89%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.67%EV -8.08%E -2.59%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -1.51%E -0.672%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -7.65%E -2.22%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 11:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 11:30
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.31%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-07 11:28
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.89%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -16.39%E -8.58%K -18.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -17.02%E -5.49%K -8.11%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-07 11:19
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.47%EV -21.21%E -11.78%K -26.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.98%EV -8.67%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.55%EV -15.68%E -4.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-07 11:19
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.31%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -10.27%E -5.01%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -10.15%E -3.33%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -6.31%E -1.80%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 11:30
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 11:30
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 11:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 11:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.08%E -3.85%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.99%E -2.64%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 11:30
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -3.70%E -1.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -15.68%E -4.98%K -7.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-07 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -10.27%E -5.01%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -11.67%E -3.54%K -5.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-07 11:29
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.19%EV -13.77%E -6.99%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.02%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.79%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-07 11:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.96%EV -12.45%E -6.23%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -13.09%E -4.44%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -10.33%E -3.08%K -4.40%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-07 11:29
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -5.89%E -2.74%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -14.57%E -5.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-07 11:30
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.38%EV -12.45%E -6.23%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -14.57%E -5.02%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -13.01%E -4.00%K -5.78%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-07 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.99%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-07 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.19%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-03-07 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.29%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-03-07 11:30
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%1.0%2026-03-07 11:30
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.60%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-03-07 11:30