The School of Odds

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC v Yunnan Yukun

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 11:35 UTC

Final: Shandong Luneng Taishan FC 4–3 Yunnan Yukun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Shandong Luneng Taishan FC (Local)

Prediction 55.98%1.79fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.87%55.98%55.94%57.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.551.651.651.7565%61%61%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Yunnan Yukun (Visit)

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.99%23.12%23.19%25.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.984.004.2529%25%25%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.87%4.79fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.74%20.91%20.88%22.62%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.394.404.6025%23%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 54.44%EV -2.03%E -1.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.80%EV -8.80%E -2.01%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 15:24
Pinnacle1.70I 58.82%NM 56.38%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.55%EV -1.62%E -0.381%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.07%EV -5.04%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-10 11:30
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 10:34
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.40%EV -5.39%E -3.19%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -1.62%E -0.381%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 10:39
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 56.40%EV -5.39%E -3.19%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -1.62%E -0.381%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-10 10:39
Bovada1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.95%E -3.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 11:15
BetUS1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -5.95%E -3.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 11:14
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 55.63%EV -5.95%E -3.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.78%EV -9.03%E -2.30%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.59%EV -5.25%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 11:24
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 53.87%EV -5.95%E -3.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -10.88%E -2.83%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -16.52%E -4.13%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 11:24
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.00%E -0.869%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-10 10:59
SportsBet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-10 11:04
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 10:54
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 10:39
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-10 10:29
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 10:40
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 10:40
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 10:40
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 10:40
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -13.19%E -3.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -9.63%E -2.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-10 10:29
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 55.82%EV -7.07%E -4.26%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.88%EV -6.25%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -9.21%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-10 10:55
Codere (IT)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.47%EV -7.07%E -4.26%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-10 11:00
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 55.30%EV -7.07%E -4.26%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.84%EV -10.88%E -2.83%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-10 11:05
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.91%EV -7.63%E -4.62%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.56%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.73%EV -7.13%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 10:55
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 55.91%EV -7.63%E -4.62%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.36%EV -8.56%E -2.17%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.73%EV -7.13%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 10:54
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -7.63%E -4.62%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 11:30
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -7.63%E -4.62%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-10 11:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 54.56%EV -7.63%E -4.62%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%EV -13.19%E -3.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-10 11:20
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 54.56%EV -7.63%E -4.62%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%EV -13.19%E -3.52%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-10 11:20
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 10:44
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 10:44
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 10:44
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 10:44
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 10:40
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 56.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 10:44
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.68%EV -8.19%E -4.99%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -12.04%E -3.17%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-10 10:55
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 56.83%EV -8.75%E -5.37%K -13.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.08%E -1.35%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-10 10:45
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.92%EV -8.75%E -5.37%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-10 10:54
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.02%EV -9.31%E -5.75%K -15.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -2.78%E -0.661%K -0.868%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 11:09
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.71%EV -9.31%E -5.75%K -15.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 11:30
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 55.88%EV -9.31%E -5.75%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -9.72%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.91%EV -9.63%E -2.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 10:54
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -9.31%E -5.75%K -15.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 11:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -9.31%E -5.75%K -15.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -12.35%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.86%EV -9.87%E -6.13%K -16.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -5.09%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.81%EV -8.17%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-10 10:40
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 55.05%EV -10.43%E -6.52%K -17.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -16.67%E -4.63%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -10.26%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-10 10:55
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 56.88%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.66%EV -9.21%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 10:45
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 56.88%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -7.41%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.66%EV -9.21%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-10 10:44
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 55.13%EV -13.23%E -8.53%K -24.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -21.30%E -6.26%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.74%EV -9.63%E -2.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%17.0%2026-07-10 10:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.17%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.72%0.5%2026-07-10 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%1.0%2026-07-10 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%1.0%2026-07-10 11:30
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 56.92%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%1.0%2026-07-10 11:30
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.38%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.25%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.37%3.1%2026-07-10 11:30