L’École des cotes

Qingdao Hainiu FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-05 11:00 UTC

Score final : Qingdao Hainiu FC 1–1 Chengdu Rongcheng FC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

46 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Local)

Prévision 17.58%5.69cote équitable
EV +1.97%
Avantage +0.340%
Kelly +0.411%
Croissance +0.008%

avec la cote maximale 5.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.03%17.67%17.42%19.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.225.255.8022.22%19.17%19.05%17.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 60.74%1.65cote équitable
EV -4.64%
Avantage -2.96%
Kelly -8.15%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.57

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.91%60.63%60.90%62.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.441.521.531.5769.44%65.66%65.36%63.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 21.68%4.61cote équitable
EV -3.30%
Avantage -0.740%
Kelly -0.954%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.46

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.02%21.70%21.68%22.83%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.214.224.4625.00%23.73%23.67%22.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (46 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
FanDuel5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV +1.97%E +0.340%K +0.411%G +0.008%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.83%EV -10.11%E -6.83%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.60%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 10:49
SportsBet5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV +0.215%E +0.038%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.34%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -4.60%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 10:50
Pinnacle5.52I 18.12%NM 17.38%EV -2.95%E -0.534%K -0.653%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.11%EV -4.64%E -2.96%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.51%EV -3.30%E -0.740%K -0.954%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-05 10:55
1xBet5.51I 18.15%NM 16.95%EV -3.13%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.86%E -3.78%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -11.10%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 10:50
DraftKings5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -3.30%E -0.600%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.04%EV -5.25%E -3.37%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -4.60%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 10:45
Coolbet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -3.30%E -0.600%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.50%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -4.60%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 10:20
PointsBet (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -3.30%E -0.600%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.20%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 10:15
betfred_uk5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -3.30%E -0.600%K -0.734%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-05 10:20
Marathon Bet5.45I 18.35%NM 17.00%EV -4.18%E -0.767%K -0.939%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.95%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-05 10:40
TABtouch5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 10:50
Grosvenor5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 10:50
Unibet5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 10:50
Unibet (SE)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 10:50
Unibet (NL)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 10:50
betPARX5.40I 18.52%NM 17.24%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 10:50
BetRivers5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -5.06%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.69%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-05 10:50
GTbets5.37I 18.62%NM 17.33%EV -5.59%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.23%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.44%EV -5.90%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 10:30
LowVig.ag5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -6.82%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.19%EV -4.64%E -2.96%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 10:55
BetOnline.ag5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -6.82%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.19%EV -4.64%E -2.96%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 10:55
Tipico (DE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -6.82%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.28%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-05 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -6.82%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.81%EV -8.29%E -5.49%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.86%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 10:50
Unibet (UK)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -7.70%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -5.86%E -3.78%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -5.68%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-05 10:30
Betway5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -7.70%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -6.12%E -1.41%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 10:35
Bet Right5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -7.70%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.71%EV -8.29%E -5.49%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-05 10:20
Bet Victor5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -7.70%E -1.47%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-05 10:54
Bovada5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -8.58%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.29%EV -5.86%E -3.78%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 10:55
BetUS5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -8.58%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.83%EV -5.25%E -3.37%K -9.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 10:55
LiveScore Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -8.58%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -9.50%E -6.38%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.10%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-05 10:50
Virgin Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.37%EV -8.58%E -1.65%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.61%EV -9.50%E -6.38%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.10%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-05 10:50
Betsson5.15I 19.42%NM 18.07%EV -9.45%E -1.84%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.04%EV -5.86%E -3.78%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 10:30
NordicBet5.15I 19.42%NM 18.07%EV -9.45%E -1.84%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.04%EV -5.86%E -3.78%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 10:30
LeoVegas5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.02%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -7.85%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 10:30
Codere (IT)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-05 10:30
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -5.86%E -3.78%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-05 10:50
Unibet (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.19%EV -8.29%E -5.49%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-05 10:30
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-05 10:25
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-05 10:25
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.07%E -4.62%K -13.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-05 10:25
Everygame5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-05 10:35
PlayUp5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.38%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-05 10:50
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -12.09%E -2.42%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -12.54%E -8.71%K -28.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-05 10:50
Winamax (DE)4.80I 20.83%NM 18.96%EV -15.61%E -3.25%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.87%EV -7.68%E -5.05%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -6.77%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-05 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -15.61%E -3.25%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-05 10:55
Neds4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -15.61%E -3.25%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.27%E -3.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-05 10:55
Winamax (FR)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -19.12%E -4.16%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.43%EV -10.11%E -6.83%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.45%EV -11.10%E -2.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-05 10:30
BoyleSports4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -20.88%E -4.64%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -8.90%E -5.93%K -17.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -8.94%E -2.13%K -2.79%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-05 10:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.85%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%0.7%2026-07-05 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.02%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.85%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%0.7%2026-07-05 10:55
Kalshi5.88I 17.01%NM 16.85%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.33%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.82%0.9%2026-07-05 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-07-05 10:45
Matchbook6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-07-05 10:45