The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Liaoning Tieren FC v Shenzhen Peng City FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00 UTC

Final: Liaoning Tieren FC 1–2 Shenzhen Peng City FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liaoning Tieren FC (Local)

Prediction 42.03%2.38fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.08%42.02%42.04%43.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.192.172.3048.54%45.59%46.08%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit)

Prediction 31.53%3.17fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.419%
Kelly -0.616%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.26%31.52%31.60%34.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.662.902.903.1337.59%34.45%34.48%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.44%3.78fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -0.808%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.26%26.46%26.36%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.493.503.7031.25%28.69%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liaoning Tieren FC (Local): 42.03%; Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit): 31.53%; Draw: 26.44%. For Shenzhen Peng City FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.13, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.72%EV -3.32%E -1.45%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -3.50%E -0.960%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 10:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.72%EV -3.32%E -1.45%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.99%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -3.50%E -0.960%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 10:54
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.28%EV -3.32%E -1.45%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.25%E -2.83%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.09%EV -3.77%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 10:39
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -3.32%E -1.45%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.66%EV -16.13%E -6.06%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -3.50%E -0.960%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 10:04
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.21%EV -4.17%E -1.83%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.75%EV -1.31%E -0.419%K -0.616%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.04%EV -5.88%E -1.65%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 10:45
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 10:53
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 10:54
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 10:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 10:39
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 10:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 10:49
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -5.43%E -2.41%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -14.08%E -4.33%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.77%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.11%EV -9.58%E -2.80%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 10:49
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.35%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 10:49
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.35%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 10:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.35%EV -6.69%E -3.01%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 10:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 10:54
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 10:54
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 10:34
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.53%E -3.42%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 10:45
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:40
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:39
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:40
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:40
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.29%EV -8.79%E -4.05%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -6.15%E -1.73%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:38
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.18%E -0.590%K -0.808%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 21:04
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:54
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.83%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 10:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -6.99%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 10:40
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 10:53
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 10:53
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.72%E -4.18%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 10:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.58%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -13.29%E -4.83%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 10:49
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -15.40%E -4.81%K -7.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-15 10:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -9.63%E -4.48%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -15.40%E -4.81%K -7.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-15 10:54
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.69%EV -10.05%E -4.70%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.26%EV -2.57%E -0.833%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.05%EV -5.09%E -1.42%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 10:54
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -7.47%E -2.13%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 10:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -11.73%E -5.59%K -10.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -13.29%E -4.83%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -8.79%E -2.55%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 10:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.21%EV -13.41%E -6.51%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -14.87%E -5.51%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-15 10:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 42.21%EV -13.41%E -6.51%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -14.87%E -5.51%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -10.11%E -2.97%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-15 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.52%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%0.9%2026-08-15 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.52%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-08-15 10:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.52%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-08-15 10:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.52%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-08-15 10:49
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.52%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-08-15 10:45