Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 11:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local)

Prediction 73.11%1.37fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -3.82%
Kelly -16.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.09%72.93%73.10%74.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.261.251.3086.96%79.55%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit)

Prediction 10.17%9.83fair odd
EV +6.82%
Edge +0.650%
Kelly +0.718%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.18%10.24%10.19%12.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.969.0010.5013.79%11.15%11.11%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.72%5.98fair odd
EV +0.324%
Edge +0.054%
Kelly +0.065%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.71%16.84%16.71%19.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.415.506.0022.22%18.49%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (Local): 73.11%; Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit): 10.17%; Draw: 16.72%. For Qingdao Hainiu FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.83. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.75%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +6.82%E +0.650%K +0.718%G +0.049%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.07%EV +0.324%E +0.054%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.75%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.18%EV +6.82%E +0.650%K +0.718%G +0.049%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.07%EV +0.324%E +0.054%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 11:10
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +1.74%E +0.174%K +0.193%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV +1.74%E +0.174%K +0.193%G +0.003%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -11.38%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-15 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.80%EV -4.96%E -3.82%K -16.54%G +0.000%9.93I 10.07%NM 9.66%EV +1.02%E +0.103%K +0.115%G +0.001%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.54%EV -3.02%E -0.521%K -0.629%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 11:30
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -6.42%E -5.02%K -22.95%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -3.35%E -0.353%K -0.394%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -3.86%E -0.671%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 11:20
Coolbet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.97%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -3.35%E -0.353%K -0.394%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 11:24
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -3.35%E -0.353%K -0.394%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-15 11:08
1xBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -7.16%E -5.63%K -26.50%G +0.000%9.34I 10.71%NM 10.00%EV -4.98%E -0.533%K -0.597%G +0.000%5.67I 17.64%NM 16.47%EV -5.19%E -0.916%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 11:30
GTbets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.45%EV -7.89%E -6.26%K -30.33%G +0.000%9.34I 10.71%NM 9.91%EV -4.98%E -0.533%K -0.597%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 16.64%EV -7.03%E -1.26%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-15 11:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.50%EV -7.89%E -6.26%K -30.33%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.96%EV -5.38%E -0.579%K -0.649%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 11:20
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.00%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV -5.89%E -0.637%K -0.714%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 11:25
Bovada🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.15%EV -5.89%E -0.637%K -0.714%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 11:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -6.42%E -5.02%K -22.95%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.34%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.93%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 11:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.89%EV -7.16%E -5.63%K -26.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 11:25
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 11:30
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.36%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-15 11:30
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.31%EV -7.16%E -5.63%K -26.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.49%EV -12.22%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-15 11:25
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:09
LeoVegas🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:09
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:10
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:10
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -6.36%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.99%EV -9.35%E -7.54%K -38.95%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -3.02%E -0.521%K -0.629%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-15 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -8.04%E -1.46%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-13 14:10
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.12%EV -6.42%E -5.02%K -22.95%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.11%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.77%EV -18.90%E -3.90%K -4.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -10.08%E -8.20%K -43.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -9.71%E -1.80%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-13 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -10.08%E -8.20%K -43.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -9.71%E -1.80%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-13 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -10.81%E -8.86%K -49.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-15 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -10.81%E -8.86%K -49.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.64%EV -8.44%E -0.937%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -24.76%E -5.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-15 10:45
NordicBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.15%EV -7.16%E -5.63%K -26.50%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.56%EV -10.47%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -4.69%E -0.823%K -0.998%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 11:25
Betsson🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.15%EV -7.16%E -5.63%K -26.50%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.56%EV -10.47%E -1.19%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -4.69%E -0.823%K -0.998%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 11:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.47%EV -7.89%E -6.26%K -30.33%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.62%EV -12.51%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -9.71%E -1.80%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-15 11:25
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -5.69%E -4.41%K -19.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -13.52%E -1.59%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -12.22%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 11:25
Everygame🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -13.52%E -1.59%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -12.22%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-15 11:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 73.24%EV -15.93%E -13.85%K -106.19%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 9.91%EV -13.52%E -1.59%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.85%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%18.7%2026-03-15 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.90%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -18.61%E -2.33%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -3.02%E -0.521%K -0.629%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 11:25
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -18.61%E -2.33%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -12.22%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -18.61%E -2.33%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -12.22%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 10:55
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -8.62%E -6.89%K -34.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -18.61%E -2.33%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-15 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 71.86%EV -13.00%E -10.93%K -68.44%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.03%EV -21.15%E -2.73%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.10%EV -16.40%E -3.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-15 11:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.35%EV -11.54%E -9.54%K -54.96%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.21%EV -21.66%E -2.81%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.44%EV -17.23%E -3.48%K -4.36%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-15 11:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.34%EV -10.08%E -8.20%K -43.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.10%EV -26.24%E -3.62%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.56%EV -11.38%E -2.15%K -2.65%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-15 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-03-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-03-15 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-03-15 11:25
Matchbook1.31I 76.34%NM 75.46%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.94%1.2%2026-03-15 11:25
Kalshi1.32I 75.76%NM 74.45%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%1.8%2026-03-15 11:30