Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción v Universidad de Chile

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 19:01 UTC

Final: Universidad de Concepción 2–1 Universidad de Chile

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Universidad de Concepción (Local)

Prediction 20.01%5.00fair odd
EV +4.45%
Edge +0.852%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 5.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.06%19.93%20.01%21.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.574.505.2223.81%21.87%22.22%19.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Universidad de Chile (Visit)

Prediction 55.07%1.82fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -4.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.08%55.08%55.09%57.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.671.7563.69%59.66%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.524%
Kelly -0.703%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%24.98%24.90%26.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.603.9329.41%27.49%27.78%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Universidad de Concepción (Local): 20.01%; Universidad de Chile (Visit): 55.07%; Draw: 24.92%. For Universidad de Concepción (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.22I 19.16%NM 18.38%EV +4.45%E +0.852%K +1.05%G +0.047%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.10%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.52%EV -6.30%E -1.67%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-30 18:55
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +0.044%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 18:19
betano_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV +0.044%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV +0.044%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -13.54%E -8.62%K -23.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 18:40
Coolbet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -1.96%E -0.399%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.59%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 18:54
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -1.96%E -0.399%K -0.502%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.05%EV -9.69%E -5.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 18:54
GTbets🎯4.82I 20.75%NM 19.66%EV -3.56%E -0.738%K -0.931%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.41%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.93%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 08:10
DraftKings🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.01%EV -6.93%E -4.10%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.81%E -0.720%K -0.968%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 18:35
Bet Victor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.38%E -3.75%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 18:53
Pinnacle🎯4.78I 20.92%NM 20.08%EV -4.36%E -0.912%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.49%EV -4.73%E -2.73%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.43%EV -2.06%E -0.524%K -0.703%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-30 18:45
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.79%EV -6.93%E -4.10%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -5.96%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.79%EV -8.58%E -5.17%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.50%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -5.96%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.31%EV -8.58%E -5.17%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 07:09
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -6.96%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.38%E -3.75%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 18:35
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -6.96%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -6.38%E -3.75%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 18:35
FanDuel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.89%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.71%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.71%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 18:55
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.49%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 18:20
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -11.34%E -7.04%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.47%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.64%EV -11.34%E -7.04%K -18.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 18:20
Grosvenor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.63%E -2.07%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.63%E -2.07%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.63%E -2.07%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 18:25
TABtouch🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.63%E -2.07%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 18:25
Unibet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.63%E -2.07%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 18:25
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.38%E -3.75%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 18:30
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.58%EV -6.93%E -4.10%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -5.83%E -3.41%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -9.69%E -5.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -6.54%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 02:00
LeoVegas🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -9.69%E -5.91%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 18:55
PlayUp🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.60%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-30 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 19.72%EV -10.96%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 55.20%EV -12.44%E -7.82%K -21.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.08%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 18:34
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -9.04%E -2.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 02:00
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -13.36%E -3.09%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.07%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -13.36%E -3.09%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.37%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 18:50
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -13.36%E -3.09%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -13.96%E -3.25%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.84%EV -7.48%E -4.45%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 18:55
BetRivers🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -13.96%E -3.25%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.26%EV -7.48%E -4.45%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -14.02%E -4.06%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.86%EV -14.96%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.08%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -15.27%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.86%EV -14.96%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.08%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -15.27%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 18:25
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -15.96%E -3.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -8.03%E -4.81%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 18:50
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -15.96%E -3.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -10.79%E -6.66%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-30 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-08-30 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-08-30 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-08-30 18:40
Matchbook5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-08-30 18:50
Kalshi5.26I 19.01%NM 18.79%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-08-30 18:05
Smarkets5.10I 19.61%NM 19.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.99%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.80%2.1%2026-08-30 18:40