The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Palestino v Deportes Concepción

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palestino (Local)

Prediction 54.39%1.84fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.33%54.38%54.35%56.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.701.7762.50%59.19%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportes Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 19.43%5.15fair odd
EV -0.926%
Edge -0.181%
Kelly -0.226%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.39%19.48%19.35%20.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.644.605.1023.81%21.54%21.74%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.411%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.14%26.31%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.473.503.7634.72%28.82%28.57%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palestino (Local): 54.39%; Deportes Concepción (Visit): 19.43%; Draw: 26.18%. For Deportes Concepción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.10, with an expected value of -0.926%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.21%EV -3.73%E -2.11%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 19.42%EV -4.03%E -0.817%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.36%EV -4.69%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 23:54
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.12%EV -5.36%E -3.08%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.37%EV -3.84%E -0.776%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.51%EV -1.55%E -0.411%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 23:49
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 23:35
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.04%EV -6.45%E -3.75%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.70%E -1.85%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 23:34
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.21%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -3.12%E -0.843%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 23:34
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.63%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 23:55
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.42%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 23:43
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:44
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:45
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:44
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -6.99%E -4.09%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.39%EV -0.926%E -0.181%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 23:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.39%EV -0.926%E -0.181%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 23:55
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -2.87%E -0.574%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 23:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.54%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.12%EV -5.78%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.34%EV -7.83%E -2.22%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 23:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.24%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 23:44
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.26%EV -7.72%E -1.63%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 23:44
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-23 23:30
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 23:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 23:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -7.54%E -4.43%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.32%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -8.63%E -5.13%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 23:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -8.63%E -5.13%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 23:45
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.34%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 23:35
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 23:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 23:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.93%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 23:35
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -15.88%E -3.67%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 23:34
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.50%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -10.64%E -2.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 23:55
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 23:45
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.27%EV -9.17%E -5.49%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 23:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.25%EV -9.71%E -5.85%K -14.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -12.58%E -2.80%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -10.80%E -6.59%K -16.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -18.41%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 23:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.12%EV -11.89%E -7.34%K -19.18%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.70%EV -13.55%E -3.05%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -12.28%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 23:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.33%EV -11.89%E -7.34%K -19.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.80%EV -18.41%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.87%EV -24.59%E -8.54%K -13.08%G +0.000%20.3%2026-04-23 23:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.47%EV -12.98%E -8.11%K -21.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -4.81%E -0.982%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-23 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-23 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.96%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.66%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.38%1.1%2026-04-23 23:40