The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Deportes Concepción v Universidad de Concepción

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 16:30 UTC

Final: Deportes Concepción 1–0 Universidad de Concepción

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportes Concepción (Local)

Prediction 46.74%2.14fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.74%47.00%46.83%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.941.952.0655.25%51.52%51.28%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Universidad de Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 25.20%3.97fair odd
EV +6.10%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.10%25.06%25.17%26.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.704.2129.41%26.53%27.03%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV +0.176%
Edge +0.049%
Kelly +0.069%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%27.93%28.00%29.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.303.5732.26%30.49%30.30%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportes Concepción (Local): 46.74%; Universidad de Concepción (Visit): 25.20%; Draw: 28.06%. For Universidad de Concepción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.01%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.81%EV +6.10%E +1.45%K +1.90%G +0.116%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.18%EV -7.68%E -2.33%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.18%EV -13.53%E -7.32%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 08:54
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.18%EV -13.53%E -7.32%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 08:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.18%EV -13.53%E -7.32%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.18%EV -13.53%E -7.32%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 08:55
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.18%EV -13.53%E -7.32%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.10%EV +5.84%E +1.39%K +1.83%G +0.107%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.71%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 08:55
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -14.47%E -7.91%K -17.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV +3.32%E +0.811%K +1.07%G +0.036%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-06 08:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -15.40%E -8.51%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV +3.32%E +0.811%K +1.07%G +0.036%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-06 08:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.25%EV -15.40%E -8.51%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV +3.32%E +0.811%K +1.07%G +0.036%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-06 08:55
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -2.98%E -0.773%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 15:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.37%EV -5.12%E -2.52%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 16:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.37%EV -5.12%E -2.52%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 16:05
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:24
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 16:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.79%EV -7.46%E -3.77%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -5.50%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.51%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 15:55
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 16:09
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -5.59%E -2.77%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:20
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -5.59%E -2.77%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:20
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 15:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -13.53%E -7.32%K -15.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -6.76%E -1.83%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 16:09
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.70%EV -3.72%E -1.80%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36%EV -8.02%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.95%EV +0.176%E +0.049%K +0.069%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-09 16:25
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 16:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -6.52%E -3.26%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.92%EV -6.84%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -7.92%E -4.02%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -7.40%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 16:10
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 15:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -9.28%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 15:20
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 16:05
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -10.73%E -5.62%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-09 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 15:50
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.86%E -4.54%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.01%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -10.73%E -5.62%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -11.80%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 16:15
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.33%EV -10.73%E -5.62%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -14.32%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-09 16:10
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.33%EV -10.73%E -5.62%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.02%EV -14.32%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -10.21%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-09 16:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.53%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.74%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-08-09 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-08-09 16:25

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