Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cobresal v Palestino

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 22:29 UTC

Final: Cobresal 2–0 Palestino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cobresal (Local)

Prediction 35.60%2.81fair odd
EV +6.10%
Edge +2.05%
Kelly +3.08%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.23%35.54%35.59%36.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.592.602.9841.67%38.68%38.46%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 38.17%2.62fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.54%38.16%38.23%40.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.412.5544.44%41.44%41.49%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.23%3.81fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.438%
Kelly -0.597%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.65%26.30%26.18%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.463.453.7530.77%28.94%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cobresal (Local): 35.60%; Palestino (Visit): 38.17%; Draw: 26.23%. For Cobresal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.23%EV +6.10%E +2.05%K +3.08%G +0.188%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.02%EV -8.39%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.76%EV -9.25%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-28 22:20
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -2.09%E -0.761%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -10.30%E -4.38%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -12.13%E -3.62%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-28 22:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -3.87%E -1.43%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -14.12%E -6.28%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 22:25
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -4.59%E -1.71%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.47%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.65%EV -1.64%E -0.438%K -0.597%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-28 22:25
GTbets🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.27%EV -4.59%E -1.71%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.65%EV -4.20%E -1.67%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.08%EV -8.46%E -2.42%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 22:05
Coolbet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.61%EV -4.94%E -1.85%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.34%EV -5.34%E -2.15%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -4.27%E -1.17%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-28 22:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -5.30%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -6.87%E -2.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -5.30%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -6.87%E -2.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 21:50
BetAnything🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -5.30%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -6.87%E -2.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 21:50
BetUS🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.35%EV -5.30%E -1.99%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -6.87%E -2.81%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 21:45
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -8.39%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 22:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -5.65%E -2.13%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.39%EV -8.78%E -3.67%K -6.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 22:10
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 22:25
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 21:49
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.63%E -3.15%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -9.51%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 22:00
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -6.72%E -2.57%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.63%E -3.15%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -9.51%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 22:00
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.33%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -4.27%E -1.17%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 21:45
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.39%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 22:14
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.39%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.58%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 22:20
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -10.30%E -4.38%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 22:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -10.30%E -4.38%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-28 22:05
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -10.30%E -4.38%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 22:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -14.76%E -4.54%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-28 21:50
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -14.76%E -4.54%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-28 21:50
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -9.54%E -4.03%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -14.76%E -4.54%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -7.43%E -2.86%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -9.54%E -4.03%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -14.76%E -4.54%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.18%EV -8.86%E -3.46%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.50%EV -5.72%E -2.32%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.32%EV -7.68%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 21:51
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.67%E -1.05%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.67%E -1.05%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 19:50
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.67%E -1.05%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.67%E -1.05%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 19:50
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -2.67%E -1.05%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 19:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 21:55
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -10.30%E -4.38%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-28 22:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.51%E -2.76%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%EV -9.21%E -3.61%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.00%EV -14.12%E -6.28%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -13.45%E -4.07%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-28 22:10
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.20%E -2.34%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-28 21:51
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 21:55
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -8.39%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 21:55
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 22:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 22:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 22:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 21:55
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -10.99%E -4.40%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.82%E -3.18%K -4.51%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 22:15
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.33%EV -11.71%E -4.72%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.90%EV -12.13%E -3.62%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-28 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -13.49%E -5.55%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -7.25%E -2.98%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -13.45%E -4.07%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-28 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -13.49%E -5.55%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -7.25%E -2.98%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -13.45%E -4.07%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-28 19:50
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.09%EV -14.55%E -6.06%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.66%EV -12.21%E -5.31%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.25%EV -13.45%E -4.07%K -5.85%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-28 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.54%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-28 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-08-28 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-08-28 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.46%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-08-28 22:15
Smarkets2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.03%1.1%2026-08-28 22:25
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.47%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94%4.0%2026-08-28 22:05