Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cobresal v Deportes Concepción

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:01 UTC

Final: Cobresal 0–2 Deportes Concepción

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cobresal (Local)

Prediction 40.70%2.46fair odd
EV +0.540%
Edge +0.219%
Kelly +0.367%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.66%40.66%40.56%43.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.272.292.4748.78%43.98%43.67%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportes Concepción (Visit)

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -0.901%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.65%31.51%31.35%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.882.903.1037.74%34.75%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.94%3.58fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%27.83%28.09%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.303.4332.26%30.68%30.30%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cobresal (Local): 40.70%; Deportes Concepción (Visit): 31.36%; Draw: 27.94%. For Cobresal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.540%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.84%EV +0.540%E +0.219%K +0.367%G +0.002%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.52%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.64%EV -6.41%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 18:59
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 17:54
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 17:55
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 17:54
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -3.12%E -1.31%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 17:54
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.93%EV -4.34%E -1.85%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.03%EV -2.79%E -0.901%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.04%EV -4.17%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -5.57%E -2.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -5.57%E -2.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 18:59
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -5.57%E -2.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 19:00
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.82%EV -5.57%E -2.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 19:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.36%E -1.43%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.41%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 18:49
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 19:00
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 18:53
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -6.38%E -2.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -15.34%E -5.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.46%EV -6.79%E -2.96%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.30%EV -7.18%E -2.43%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.25%EV -8.36%E -2.55%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.70%EV -7.19%E -3.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.29%EV -16.90%E -6.38%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -11.99%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-16 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.70%EV -7.19%E -3.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.29%EV -16.90%E -6.38%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -11.99%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-16 17:54
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 18:59
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 16:09
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -8.41%E -3.74%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -2.79%E -0.901%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 18:05
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-16 19:00
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.69%E -3.37%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.01%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:10
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.01%E -3.49%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 16:10
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 18:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 18:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.07%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-16 18:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.07%EV -10.45%E -4.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.49%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.44%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-16 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -16.56%E -8.08%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 18:34
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -16.56%E -8.08%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-16 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.56%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%1.0%2026-08-16 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-08-16 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.49%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-08-16 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.49%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-08-16 19:00