The School of Odds

São Bernardo v Cuiabá

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:00 UTC

Final: São Bernardo 2–2 Cuiabá

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 35.47%2.82fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.71%35.65%35.57%37.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.552.602.6942.55%39.18%38.46%37.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cuiabá (Visit)

Prediction 31.95%3.13fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -0.837%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.20%31.88%31.82%32.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.922.903.0536.36%34.29%34.48%32.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.973%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.47%32.60%33.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.822.9837.04%35.37%35.46%33.56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -4.59%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.89%EV -3.51%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.31%EV -2.90%E -0.973%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-12 18:50
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.71%EV -4.95%E -1.85%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.30%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -8.11%E -2.88%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 17:14
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.71%EV -4.95%E -1.85%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.30%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -8.11%E -2.88%K -4.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 17:14
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.01%E -2.27%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 18:34
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -6.01%E -2.27%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.10%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 17:14
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.77%EV -6.01%E -2.27%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 17:14
LowVig.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 35.68%EV -6.37%E -2.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -4.79%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 18:34
BetOnline.ag2.64I 37.88%NM 35.68%EV -6.37%E -2.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.61%EV -4.79%E -1.61%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 18:35
1xBet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -6.72%E -2.56%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.12%EV -7.03%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.34%EV -5.83%E -2.02%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 18:54
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.08%E -2.70%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 18:49
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.08%E -2.70%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 18:49
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.08%E -2.70%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 18:49
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.08%E -2.70%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 18:49
Marathon Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 31.84%EV -7.03%E -2.41%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -7.14%E -2.50%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 18:54
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -10.54%E -3.76%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 18:54
BetUS2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-12 18:34
LeoVegas2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 17:44
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.54%E -3.76%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.14%E -2.50%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-12 12:39
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -12.14%E -4.41%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-12 12:39
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -7.79%E -2.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -10.54%E -3.76%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-12 18:49
Bovada2.58I 38.76%NM 35.78%EV -8.50%E -3.29%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.35%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -7.14%E -2.50%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-12 18:49
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -9.56%E -3.75%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.44%EV -2.55%E -0.837%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.16%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-12 18:49
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -9.56%E -3.75%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-12 18:49
Unibet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:49
Unibet (NL)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:49
Unibet (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:49
Casumo2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:50
ATG (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:49
Svenska Spel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:50
betPARX2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.51%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 18:49
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -12.02%E -4.45%K -7.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -11.33%E -4.53%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -12.02%E -4.45%K -7.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 18:49
BetRivers2.43I 41.15%NM 37.56%EV -13.82%E -5.69%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -4.15%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.02%EV -7.14%E -2.50%K -3.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 18:44
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 36.96%EV -13.82%E -5.69%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.97%EV -7.35%E -2.53%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.07%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-12 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -14.88%E -6.20%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -7.98%E -2.77%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-12 18:49
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 36.95%EV -14.88%E -6.20%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.25%EV -12.14%E -4.41%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -6.16%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-12 12:45
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -14.88%E -6.20%K -10.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.02%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.15%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-12 18:50
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -16.65%E -7.09%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.90%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-12 18:49
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -16.65%E -7.09%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -8.94%E -3.14%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.90%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-12 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%0.6%2026-07-12 18:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-07-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-07-12 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05%0.9%2026-07-12 18:54
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.80%1.6%2026-07-12 18:54