The School of Odds
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São Bernardo v Athletic Club (MG)

2026-11-12 23:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

São Bernardo (Local)

Prediction 48.52%2.06fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -5.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.07%48.46%48.53%49.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.901.911.9656.50%52.64%52.36%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 24.50%4.08fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.74%24.53%24.50%25.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.753.8828.57%27.03%26.67%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%27.00%26.96%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.363.303.5030.77%29.75%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: São Bernardo (Local): 48.52%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 24.50%; Draw: 26.98%. For São Bernardo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.96, with an expected value of -4.90%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -4.90%E -2.50%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -6.92%E -2.01%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-10 15:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.39%E -2.76%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-10 15:40
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -6.36%E -3.29%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.28%EV -4.93%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-10 08:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.02%EV -6.36%E -3.29%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-10 12:59
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.91%EV -6.84%E -3.56%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -6.89%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-10 12:55
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.91%EV -6.84%E -3.56%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -6.89%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-10 12:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.89%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 10:20
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -6.89%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -6.92%E -2.01%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-10 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-10 12:40
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-10 12:45
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-10 12:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-10 12:55
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-10 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-10 15:10
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-10 15:10
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.25%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-10 15:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.25%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-10 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.25%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-10 15:54
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.33%E -3.84%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.25%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-10 15:55
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -7.81%E -4.11%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -5.67%E -1.47%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 15:24
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -7.81%E -4.11%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.31%EV -6.65%E -1.75%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.93%EV -7.19%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-10 08:40
LeoVegas🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.22%EV -7.81%E -4.11%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -9.62%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-10 12:55
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -7.81%E -4.11%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-10 15:25
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -8.30%E -4.39%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -6.89%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-10 08:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.79%EV -8.30%E -4.39%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.32%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-10 12:59
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -9.27%E -4.96%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.89%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-10 15:38
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.27%E -4.96%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.12%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-10 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -11.21%E -6.13%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -11.80%E -3.28%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-10 15:40
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -11.21%E -6.13%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.25%E -4.07%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-11-10 08:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.63%EV -14.12%E -7.98%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -9.35%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -10.97%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.8%2026-11-10 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.97I 50.76%NM 48.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%4.7%2026-11-10 16:40
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 47.77%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.30%16.3%2026-11-10 13:24

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