Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nautico PE v Operario PR

Início: 2026-09-15 22:30 UTC

Final: Nautico PE 3–3 Operario PR

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nautico PE (Local)

Previsão 48.12%2.08odd justa
EV -5.68%
Vantagem -2.90%
Kelly -5.91%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.96

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.68%48.13%48.14%49.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.811.901.911.9655.25%52.58%52.36%51.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Operario PR (Visitante)

Previsão 23.88%4.19odd justa
EV +1.47%
Vantagem +0.346%
Kelly +0.452%
Crescimento +0.007%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.61%23.89%23.89%25.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.603.843.804.2527.78%26.05%26.32%23.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.00%3.57odd justa
EV -2.00%
Vantagem -0.571%
Kelly -0.800%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.80%27.98%27.97%29.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.293.303.5032.26%30.43%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Nautico PE (Local): 48.12%; Operario PR (Visitante): 23.88%; Empate: 28.00%. Para Operario PR (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.19. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.25, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.47%.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04%EV -5.68%E -2.90%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.61%EV +1.47%E +0.346%K +0.452%G +0.007%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.35%EV -5.08%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-15 22:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -6.64%E -3.42%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -2.11%E -0.515%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -6.64%E -3.42%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -2.11%E -0.515%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -7.60%E -3.96%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 22:20
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-15 22:25
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-15 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.94%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -4.50%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.05%EV -8.16%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 22:25
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.18%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.20%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 22:20
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.47%EV -7.12%E -3.69%K -7.66%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.68%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.84%EV -5.92%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 22:25
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.35%EV -9.04%E -4.79%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-15 22:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 22:25
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 22:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 22:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 22:25
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -9.53%E -5.07%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -3.40%E -0.985%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 22:25
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -7.60%E -3.96%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 22:20
BetUS🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -7.60%E -3.96%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -5.69%E -1.44%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.45%EV -10.01%E -5.35%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -6.89%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.31%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-15 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.85%EV -7.60%E -3.96%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -8.08%E -2.10%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.00%E -0.571%K -0.800%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 22:20
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.97%EV -10.01%E -5.35%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 22:20
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-15 22:25
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-15 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-15 22:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-15 22:25
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -10.01%E -5.35%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-15 21:50
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -10.01%E -5.35%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.14%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-15 22:20
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -11.93%E -6.52%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -9.27%E -2.44%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-15 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-15 22:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-15 22:20
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 22:25
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 22:25
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-15 22:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -11.93%E -6.52%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-15 22:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -11.93%E -6.52%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-15 22:25
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -11.93%E -6.52%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -10.47%E -2.79%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-15 22:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -6.16%E -3.16%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 22:25
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.19%EV -7.60%E -3.96%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-15 22:20
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-15 22:25
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-15 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-15 22:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-15 22:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.74%EV -12.41%E -6.82%K -15.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.29%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-15 22:25
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.87%EV -12.89%E -7.12%K -15.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -11.66%E -3.15%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-15 22:25
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -8.56%E -4.51%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 22:20
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -8.08%E -4.23%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-15 22:21
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.34%EV -8.56%E -4.51%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.98%EV -14.05%E -3.90%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-15 22:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-09-15 22:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-09-15 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-09-15 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-09-15 22:20
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-09-15 22:25