The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Nautico PE v Criciuma

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 19:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nautico PE (Local)

Prediction 38.70%2.58fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.07%38.86%38.67%42.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.312.372.4746.73%43.20%42.28%40.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV +6.38%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.138%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.77%26.95%27.13%30.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.543.583.9535.71%28.28%27.97%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.37%2.91fair odd
EV +3.11%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%34.19%34.20%35.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.692.703.0038.46%37.16%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 38.70%; Criciuma (Visit): 26.93%; Draw: 34.37%. For Criciuma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.10%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV +6.38%E +1.62%K +2.16%G +0.138%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 19:00
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.97%EV -13.71%E -6.15%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +5.04%E +1.29%K +1.74%G +0.087%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -5.48%E -1.99%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 18:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.13%EV -15.64%E -7.18%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV +3.69%E +0.958%K +1.29%G +0.048%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 19:00
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.13%EV -15.64%E -7.18%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV +3.69%E +0.958%K +1.29%G +0.048%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 19:00
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.22%EV -16.42%E -7.60%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV +2.34%E +0.617%K +0.837%G +0.020%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.05%EV -17.19%E -8.03%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV +0.996%E +0.266%K +0.362%G +0.004%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%EV -8.92%E -3.36%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.05%EV -17.19%E -8.03%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV +0.996%E +0.266%K +0.362%G +0.004%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%EV -8.92%E -3.36%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 19:00
LeoVegas🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.05%EV -17.19%E -8.03%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV +0.996%E +0.266%K +0.362%G +0.004%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%EV -8.92%E -3.36%K -5.40%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 19:00
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.98%EV -4.42%E -1.79%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.75%EV -3.04%E -0.845%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.27%EV -3.42%E -1.22%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -3.04%E -0.845%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -8.92%E -3.36%K -5.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 18:59
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -3.04%E -0.845%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -9.95%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -3.04%E -0.845%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -9.95%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.97%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 19:00
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.19%E -2.12%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 18:59
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.43%EV -6.74%E -2.80%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.40%EV -8.97%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.17%EV -6.85%E -2.53%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 18:59
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.48%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.95%EV -6.51%E -2.39%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 18:59
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.48%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.95%EV -6.51%E -2.39%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 19:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -7.90%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -11.12%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -9.95%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 19:00
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.06%E -3.86%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -12.47%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV +3.11%E +1.04%K +1.56%G +0.048%6.7%2026-03-22 19:00
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -13.82%E -4.32%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -8.92%E -3.36%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-22 19:00
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 18:59
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -7.13%E -2.97%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.63%E -4.09%K -6.65%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 18:59
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -11.00%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-22 18:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -11.00%E -4.78%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -24.59%E -8.78%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -7.20%E -2.67%K -4.23%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-22 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.29%0.6%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.32%1.2%2026-03-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.55%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.03%1.3%2026-03-22 19:00