The School of Odds
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Nautico PE v América Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 19:00 UTC

Final: Nautico PE 4–0 América Mineiro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nautico PE (Local)

Prediction 47.16%2.12fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -2.84%
Kelly -5.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.90%47.21%47.10%48.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.941.932.0054.64%51.66%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

América Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 24.44%4.09fair odd
EV +3.12%
Edge +0.739%
Kelly +0.968%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%24.36%24.46%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.813.804.2228.57%26.25%26.32%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.40%3.52fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.14%28.43%28.44%29.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.253.4034.72%30.68%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 47.16%; América Mineiro (Visit): 24.44%; Draw: 28.40%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.08%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.79%EV +3.12%E +0.739%K +0.968%G +0.030%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.14%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-10 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -2.26%E -0.565%K -0.753%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -2.26%E -0.565%K -0.753%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:34
Bovada🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -2.26%E -0.565%K -0.753%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -10.54%E -3.34%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 18:42
BetUS🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.73%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -2.26%E -0.565%K -0.753%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -10.54%E -3.34%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 18:44
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.36%EV -8.50%E -4.38%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:19
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:20
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.49%EV -8.03%E -4.12%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -4.70%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.76%EV -8.55%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 18:54
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -5.92%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.66%EV -10.86%E -5.75%K -12.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -5.92%E -1.54%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -4.85%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 18:20
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -9.92%E -5.19%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 19:03
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -10.39%E -5.47%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -3.43%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.64%EV -11.33%E -6.03%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -4.85%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 18:19
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.44%EV -11.33%E -6.03%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -7.15%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-10 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.99%EV -6.62%E -3.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-08 01:34
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 18:34
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.48%EV -12.75%E -6.89%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.48%EV -12.75%E -6.89%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 18:20
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.48%EV -12.75%E -6.89%K -15.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -8.37%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-10 18:19
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.63%EV -6.62%E -3.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 01:34
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.63%EV -6.62%E -3.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 01:34
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.38%EV -8.03%E -4.12%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-10 18:44
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.45%EV -10.39%E -5.47%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -9.59%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-10 18:48
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.73%EV -7.56%E -3.86%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -10.81%E -2.96%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-10 17:19
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.67%E -2.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 18:54
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.54%EV -10.39%E -5.47%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-10 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.11%EV -11.81%E -6.31%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.47%EV -12.03%E -3.34%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-05 07:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.33%EV -13.69%E -7.48%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.23%EV -14.48%E -4.14%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.44%EV -18.20%E -6.32%K -9.68%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-09 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%1.7%2026-05-10 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%1.7%2026-05-10 18:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%1.7%2026-05-10 18:34