The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Londrina v São Bernardo

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 35.98%2.78fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.14%36.49%36.01%38.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.532.552.6242.02%39.55%39.22%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

São Bernardo (Visit)

Prediction 32.99%3.03fair odd
EV +10.51%
Edge +3.14%
Kelly +4.47%
Growth +0.470%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.68%32.08%33.15%34.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.842.793.3538.17%35.26%35.84%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.03%3.22fair odd
EV -6.91%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.90%31.43%30.85%33.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.943.0037.04%34.33%34.01%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 35.98%; São Bernardo (Visit): 32.99%; Draw: 31.03%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -14.36%E -6.03%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV +10.51%E +3.14%K +4.47%G +0.470%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -13.74%E -4.94%K -7.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-05 06:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -14.36%E -6.03%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV +10.51%E +3.14%K +4.47%G +0.470%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -13.74%E -4.94%K -7.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-05 06:09
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 14:00
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -5.72%E -2.19%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 23:45
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -5.72%E -2.19%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 23:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -5.72%E -2.19%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 23:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -5.72%E -2.19%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.63%E -2.73%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.64%E -3.69%K -5.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 23:45
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -7.16%E -2.78%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -8.29%E -2.98%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 14:05
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.87%EV -7.16%E -2.78%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -8.29%E -2.98%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-04 14:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -8.24%E -3.23%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-04 14:05
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.28%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-04 13:59
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.93%E -4.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-04 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.70%EV -13.64%E -5.68%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.57%EV -13.24%E -5.03%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.73%EV -16.22%E -6.01%K -9.54%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-04 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.04%E -4.02%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -13.57%E -5.18%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -6.91%E -2.30%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-04 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 35.69%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.47%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.84%15.8%2026-05-04 14:09