The School of Odds
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Londrina v Juventude

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 31.85%3.14fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.596%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.17%31.70%31.96%32.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.912.893.1036.36%34.35%34.60%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juventude (Visit)

Prediction 36.22%2.76fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.32%36.16%36.17%37.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.582.6341.67%39.46%38.83%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.93%3.13fair odd
EV -5.82%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -2.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.26%32.14%31.86%34.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.842.882.9537.04%35.25%34.78%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 31.85%; Juventude (Visit): 36.22%; Draw: 31.93%. For Londrina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.25%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -1.25%E -0.404%K -0.596%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.35%EV -5.47%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.05%EV -8.37%E -2.92%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-26 11:59
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -2.84%E -0.932%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.96%EV -9.82%E -3.94%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 09:37
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.45%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-27 21:27
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 18:34
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 18:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -4.44%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -13.80%E -5.11%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-26 18:34
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -5.82%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-26 18:14
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -5.82%E -1.97%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-27 12:25
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.62%E -2.63%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -11.26%E -4.60%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-27 20:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.38%EV -8.26%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.46%EV -4.74%E -1.80%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-27 09:05
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -8.26%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -13.08%E -5.45%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-27 20:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -8.26%E -2.87%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -13.08%E -5.45%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-27 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -8.58%E -2.99%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -13.08%E -5.45%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-27 19:50
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -8.58%E -2.99%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -13.08%E -5.45%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -10.60%E -3.79%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-27 20:35
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -9.21%E -3.23%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.64%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-27 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -10.81%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 12:25
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -10.81%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -5.83%E -2.24%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.05%E -2.80%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-26 18:15
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.81%E -3.86%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -7.64%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -7.41%E -2.56%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-26 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.40%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.45%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -8.05%E -2.80%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-27 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.43%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.89%6.9%2026-08-26 18:25
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.98%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.98%9.1%2026-08-27 21:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 37.17%1.21I 82.64%NM 33.48%1.38I 72.46%NM 29.36%146.9%2026-08-28 12:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 37.17%1.21I 82.64%NM 33.48%1.38I 72.46%NM 29.36%146.9%2026-08-28 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.75%1.08I 92.59%NM 32.50%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.75%184.9%2026-08-28 10:50