Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventude v Atletico Goianiense

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 21:01 UTC

Final: Juventude 2–2 Atletico Goianiense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventude (Local)

Prediction 44.52%2.25fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.29%44.61%44.40%46.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.072.1151.28%48.55%48.31%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Goianiense (Visit)

Prediction 24.58%4.07fair odd
EV +0.518%
Edge +0.127%
Kelly +0.168%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.12%24.48%24.54%25.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.754.0928.57%26.92%26.67%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.91%3.24fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.841%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.66%30.91%31.06%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.923.1535.71%33.86%34.25%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juventude (Local): 44.52%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 24.58%; Draw: 30.91%. For Atletico Goianiense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.07. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.518%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.82%EV -6.07%E -2.88%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.12%EV +0.518%E +0.127%K +0.168%G +0.001%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -8.83%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 14:50
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -1.69%E -0.423%K -0.565%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 13:09
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -7.40%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -1.69%E -0.423%K -0.565%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.70%EV -7.40%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -1.69%E -0.423%K -0.565%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 18:00
Bovada🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.59%EV -7.85%E -3.79%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -2.92%E -0.740%K -0.991%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -10.99%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 14:41
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.56%EV -6.96%E -3.33%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.76%EV -3.66%E -0.934%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.68%EV -9.14%E -3.11%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 10:00
SportsBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.19%EV -9.63%E -4.74%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -4.15%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -2.65%E -0.841%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 12:55
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -5.38%E -1.40%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -4.19%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:10
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.61%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 06:09
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.61%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 02:45
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.61%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -4.19%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 12:54
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.61%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -4.19%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 13:00
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.61%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -4.19%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 04:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -6.61%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -11.92%E -4.18%K -6.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 21:10
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:50
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:49
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 10:50
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 02:45
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 02:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 02:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.84%E -2.09%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 02:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.07%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 21:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -9.07%E -2.45%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-03 19:55
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.58%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -10.30%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.34%EV -9.76%E -3.34%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 00:34
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.58%EV -6.51%E -3.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -10.30%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.34%EV -9.76%E -3.34%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 00:34
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.32%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -10.30%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -8.83%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 10:50
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%EV -10.30%E -2.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 23:10
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.03%EV -7.40%E -3.56%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.53%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 21:04
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 11:30
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-03 02:50
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-03 12:54
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 04:04
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.29%EV -10.07%E -4.99%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 10:50
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -13.19%E -6.76%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -11.52%E -3.20%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -7.28%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 09:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.54%EV -7.85%E -3.79%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -12.75%E -3.59%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-02 00:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.14%EV -10.07%E -4.99%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -12.75%E -3.59%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.75%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 10:49
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -10.96%E -5.48%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%EV -12.75%E -3.59%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.76%EV -10.99%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 10:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -13.98%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 11:29
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -13.98%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -13.98%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 11:25
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -8.74%E -4.26%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -13.98%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -10.37%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 11:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.24%EV -11.85%E -5.99%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.03%EV -13.98%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.73%EV -11.92%E -4.18%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-04 10:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.24%EV -11.85%E -5.99%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.03%EV -13.98%E -3.99%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.73%EV -11.92%E -4.18%K -6.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-04 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.35%5.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.35%5.1%2026-09-04 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.35%5.1%2026-09-04 13:10
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 44.09%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.32%6.0%2026-09-04 14:00
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.08%6.0%2026-09-04 14:30