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Grêmio Novorizontino v Londrina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 59.60%1.68fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -3.69%
Kelly -10.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.93%59.61%59.60%60.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.541.561.5866.67%64.83%64.10%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Londrina (Visit)
Prediction 15.50%6.45fair odd
EV +0.753%
Edge +0.116%
Kelly +0.137%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.18%15.45%15.50%16.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.006.006.5018.18%16.68%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.90%4.02fair odd
EV -6.64%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.38%24.94%24.90%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.663.723.7532.26%27.35%26.88%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 59.60%; Londrina (Visit): 15.50%; Draw: 24.90%. For Londrina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.753%.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +0.753%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -8.81%E -5.76%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +0.753%E +0.116%K +0.137%G +0.001% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-20 05:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.66%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 18:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.82%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -5.45%E -0.893%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 20:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.78%EV -8.21%E -5.33%K -15.20%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.89%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.73%EV -8.81%E -5.76%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.04%EV -9.13%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.05%EV -10.00%E -6.62%K -19.60%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -9.13%E -2.50%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -8.81%E -5.76%K -16.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -7.00%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.87%E -3.68%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-20 05:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.39%EV -7.02%E -4.50%K -12.53%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV -8.55%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.91%EV -7.39%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.83%E -3.69%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 5.82I 17.18%NM 16.00%EV -9.79%E -1.68%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.04%EV -7.39%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.69%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -10.10%E -1.74%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.69%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -10.10%E -1.74%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.69%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -10.10%E -1.74%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -10.38%E -2.88%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.75%E -2.68%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -6.64%E -1.77%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-05 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 56.93%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.53%EV -14.75%E -2.68%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.55%EV -22.83%E -7.36%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-02-21 20:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.