The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Goiás v Operario PR

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 21:30 UTC

Final: Goiás 0–3 Operario PR

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Goiás (Local)

Prediction 41.14%2.43fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.81%41.09%41.16%42.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3547.62%44.48%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Operario PR (Visit)

Prediction 28.19%3.55fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%28.21%28.26%30.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.233.4133.33%30.83%31.01%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.67%3.26fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.00%30.71%30.59%31.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.882.972.983.1834.72%33.67%33.56%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Goiás (Local): 41.14%; Operario PR (Visit): 28.19%; Draw: 30.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.18, with an expected value of -2.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -3.33%E -1.42%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -11.20%E -3.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -4.91%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-21 21:19
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.50%EV -4.56%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.23%EV -3.87%E -1.14%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.27%EV -2.46%E -0.774%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-21 21:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.64%EV -4.56%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.15%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.64%EV -8.59%E -2.88%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-21 21:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.64%EV -4.56%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.15%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.64%EV -8.59%E -2.88%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-21 21:19
BetUS🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.64%EV -4.56%E -1.97%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.15%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.64%EV -8.59%E -2.88%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-21 21:20
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.56%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.91%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-21 21:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 21:20
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 21:19
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 21:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 21:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 21:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.01%EV -7.03%E -3.11%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -6.97%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 21:19
Bovada🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.80%EV -7.03%E -3.11%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.97%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.26%EV -9.51%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-21 21:19
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.97%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-21 21:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.97%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-21 21:19
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-21 21:19
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -11.20%E -3.56%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.7%2026-06-21 21:09
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.05%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.88%EV -12.05%E -3.86%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-21 21:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -7.44%E -3.31%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -15.43%E -5.14%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-21 21:19
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.62%EV -8.68%E -3.91%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -5.56%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-21 21:09
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.62%EV -8.68%E -3.91%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -5.56%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-21 21:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -4.15%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.91%E -1.59%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-21 21:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -4.15%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-21 21:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -5.56%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -9.51%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 21:10
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-06-21 21:09
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -11.66%E -4.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-21 21:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-21 21:10
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-21 21:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-21 21:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.50%E -4.32%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-21 21:10
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.56%E -5.37%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.3%2026-06-21 21:08
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -13.61%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -4.15%E -1.22%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.51%E -3.23%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-21 21:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-06-21 21:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-06-21 21:20
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-06-21 21:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-06-21 21:20
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%1.4%2026-06-21 21:20