Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Goiás v Juventude

Inicio: 2026-08-19 00:35 UTC

Final: Goiás 0–1 Juventude

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Goiás (Local)

Predicción 41.61%2.40momio equitativo
EV -3.89%
Ventaja -1.68%
Kelly -2.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.63%41.56%41.63%42.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.222.202.3147.62%45.07%45.45%43.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Juventude (Visitante)

Predicción 26.16%3.82momio equitativo
EV -0.850%
Ventaja -0.224%
Kelly -0.305%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.79

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.73%26.15%26.19%28.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.473.503.7931.25%28.78%28.57%26.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 32.23%3.10momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -1.10%
Kelly -1.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.10%32.29%32.17%33.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.832.813.0037.04%35.35%35.59%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Goiás (Local): 41.61%; Juventude (Visitante): 26.16%; Empate: 32.23%. Para Juventude (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.82. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.79, con un valor esperado de -0.850%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.70%EV -3.89%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.42%EV -0.850%E -0.224%K -0.305%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.88%EV -5.56%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-19 00:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -4.30%E -1.87%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -1.90%E -0.506%K -0.689%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.90%EV -10.40%E -3.74%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 00:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.28%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -1.90%E -0.506%K -0.689%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-19 00:25
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.02%EV -5.14%E -2.25%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-18 23:55
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -3.20%E -0.866%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 00:15
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -4.92%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 00:15
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -3.30%E -1.10%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-19 00:30
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 00:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 00:20
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.38%E -2.84%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 00:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.34%EV -6.80%E -3.04%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.58%EV -5.30%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.07%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-19 00:30
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.01%EV -7.22%E -3.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -8.14%E -2.86%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-18 23:55
Bovada🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.50%EV -7.63%E -3.44%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.91%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 00:24
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-19 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -1.90%E -0.506%K -0.689%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-19 00:20
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -3.20%E -0.866%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-19 00:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 00:15
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-19 00:15
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-19 00:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -8.14%E -2.86%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-19 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.53%E -2.25%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-19 00:15
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.52%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.39%EV -9.11%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 00:15
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.52%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.44%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.39%EV -9.11%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 00:14
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -8.14%E -2.86%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-19 00:14
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-19 00:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.14%E -2.86%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-19 00:15
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -14.98%E -4.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-19 00:22
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -16.28%E -5.09%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -7.17%E -2.49%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-19 00:30
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-19 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-19 00:15
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-19 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-19 00:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.46%E -3.85%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-19 00:14
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.16%EV -9.30%E -4.26%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.79%EV -12.36%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -9.75%E -3.48%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-18 23:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.76%EV -9.30%E -4.26%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-18 23:55
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.98%EV -10.13%E -4.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -13.67%E -4.14%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-18 23:55
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -12.97%E -4.81%K -7.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-19 00:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.78%EV -10.54%E -4.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -12.97%E -4.81%K -7.63%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-19 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 40.80%EV -10.96%E -5.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%EV -14.98%E -4.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.34%EV -12.97%E -4.81%K -7.63%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-18 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 40.80%EV -10.96%E -5.12%K -9.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%EV -14.98%E -4.61%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.34%EV -12.97%E -4.81%K -7.63%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-18 23:55
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -12.62%E -6.01%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -5.82%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -11.36%E -4.13%K -6.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-18 19:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.26%0.9%2026-08-19 00:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%1.0%2026-08-19 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%1.0%2026-08-19 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%1.0%2026-08-19 00:20
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.24%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04%1.6%2026-08-19 00:30