Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuiabá v Goiás

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 21:30 UTC

Final: Cuiabá 1–1 Goiás

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuiabá (Local)

Prediction 38.42%2.60fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%38.40%38.42%39.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.382.5244.44%42.05%42.02%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Goiás (Visit)

Prediction 27.36%3.66fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.422%
Kelly -0.584%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.20%27.30%27.42%28.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.353.333.6032.05%29.83%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.22%2.92fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.88%34.30%34.16%35.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.582.682.702.8038.76%37.25%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuiabá (Local): 38.42%; Goiás (Visit): 27.36%; Draw: 34.22%. For Goiás (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.52%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.22%EV -3.17%E -1.26%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.75%EV -1.52%E -0.422%K -0.584%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.02%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-22 21:20
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -3.94%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 19:00
BetUS🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 21:20
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -10.35%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 20:44
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -10.35%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 20:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -10.35%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 20:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -5.86%E -2.39%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -10.35%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 20:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -6.24%E -2.56%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.82%EV -4.87%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 20:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -6.24%E -2.56%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.82%EV -4.87%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 20:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.31%EV -7.01%E -2.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.11%EV -6.44%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.59%EV -8.29%E -3.09%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 20:44
Bovada🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.20%EV -7.01%E -2.90%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.79%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.01%EV -9.66%E -3.66%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 21:13
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -4.19%E -1.50%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 20:59
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 20:45
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 20:44
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:15
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.23%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.56%EV -11.72%E -4.54%K -7.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 19:14
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.23%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.56%EV -11.72%E -4.54%K -7.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 19:14
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -7.78%E -3.24%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 21:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.43%EV -8.16%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.33%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 19:15
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:24
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:25
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.00%EV -5.62%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.87%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 21:24
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 20:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.46%EV -10.00%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 21:19
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -10.35%E -3.95%K -6.39%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 20:45
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.82%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.85%EV -14.65%E -4.70%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.34%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 21:23
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.82%EV -8.55%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.85%EV -14.65%E -4.70%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.34%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 21:23
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.70%E -4.13%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 21:00
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -9.70%E -4.13%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -8.36%E -2.49%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 20:40
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -9.70%E -4.13%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 20:45
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -9.70%E -4.13%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -11.09%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 20:45
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -11.62%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.09%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -5.90%E -2.14%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 21:00
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.99%EV -11.62%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.72%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -9.32%E -3.52%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-22 21:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.62%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 20:44
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.62%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 20:45
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.62%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 20:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -11.62%E -5.05%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -7.61%E -2.82%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 20:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.93%EV -12.39%E -5.43%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.31%EV -11.09%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.75%EV -10.00%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 21:24
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.93%EV -12.39%E -5.43%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.31%EV -11.09%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.75%EV -10.00%E -3.80%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 21:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.93%EV -13.54%E -6.02%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.69%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-22 20:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.93%EV -13.54%E -6.02%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.37%EV -12.46%E -3.89%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.69%EV -11.03%E -4.24%K -6.89%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-22 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.43%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.15%0.9%2026-08-22 21:25
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.51%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.47%1.4%2026-08-22 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19%1.5%2026-08-22 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19%1.5%2026-08-22 21:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19%1.5%2026-08-22 21:25