Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuiabá v Atletico Goianiense

Kickoff: 2026-07-23 23:30 UTC

Final: Cuiabá 0–1 Atletico Goianiense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cuiabá (Local)

Prediction 43.01%2.33fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.98%43.08%43.06%46.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.102.132.2352.08%47.63%46.84%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Goianiense (Visit)

Prediction 24.81%4.03fair odd
EV -0.777%
Edge -0.194%
Kelly -0.259%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%24.78%24.80%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.734.0028.57%26.82%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.19%3.11fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.598%
Kelly -0.890%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.31%32.13%32.14%33.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.882.883.0536.36%34.67%34.72%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cuiabá (Local): 43.01%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 24.81%; Draw: 32.19%. For Atletico Goianiense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.777%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.09%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.58%EV -5.04%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-23 23:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.92%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -4.50%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.65%E -2.29%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-23 23:25
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.50%EV -7.30%E -2.53%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-23 23:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.39%E -2.45%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.26%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 22:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.14%EV -6.25%E -2.87%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -0.777%E -0.194%K -0.259%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.35%EV -9.23%E -3.27%K -5.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 23:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.14%EV -6.25%E -2.87%K -5.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -0.777%E -0.194%K -0.259%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.35%EV -9.23%E -3.27%K -5.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 23:25
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -6.25%E -2.87%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -9.23%E -3.27%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 22:20
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -6.25%E -2.87%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -9.23%E -3.27%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 22:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.32%EV -7.11%E -3.29%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.04%EV -9.46%E -2.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 22:20
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.43%E -1.14%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-23 22:00
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.43%E -1.14%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-23 22:00
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -5.04%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-23 22:35
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -5.74%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.65%E -2.29%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 22:15
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -5.74%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-23 23:27
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 23:05
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.26%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 22:35
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.26%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 22:14
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -11.48%E -4.17%K -6.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 23:25
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -11.48%E -4.17%K -6.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 23:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -11.48%E -4.17%K -6.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 23:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -11.48%E -4.17%K -6.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 23:25
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-23 22:30
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-23 22:29
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -8.83%E -4.16%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -11.94%E -3.36%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.26%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-23 23:29
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -6.65%E -2.29%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 22:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -6.65%E -2.29%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-23 23:20
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -7.30%E -2.53%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-23 21:59
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.30%E -2.53%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-23 22:00
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 22:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 22:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 22:15
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.18%E -3.77%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 22:15
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -11.84%E -5.78%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -10.70%E -2.97%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -9.87%E -3.53%K -5.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-23 22:00
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.00%EV -13.13%E -6.50%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -2.02%E -0.511%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -1.82%E -0.598%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-23 23:15
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -13.99%E -6.99%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.74%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -3.43%E -1.14%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 23:15
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.85%EV -16.14%E -8.28%K -16.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -5.04%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-23 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.74%EV -16.57%E -8.54%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.66%EV -6.98%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -6.65%E -2.29%K -3.50%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-23 23:15
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.72%EV -17.00%E -8.81%K -18.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -8.22%E -2.22%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.43%EV -6.65%E -2.29%K -3.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-23 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.61%EV -17.43%E -9.08%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -9.46%E -2.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.40%EV -7.30%E -2.53%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-23 23:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.61%EV -17.43%E -9.08%K -18.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -9.46%E -2.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.40%EV -7.30%E -2.53%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-23 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.55%0.7%2026-07-23 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.36%1.3%2026-07-23 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.36%1.3%2026-07-23 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.36%1.3%2026-07-23 23:25
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.39%1.9%2026-07-23 23:25