Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma v Operario PR

2026-09-22 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Criciuma (Local)

Prediction 49.65%2.01fair odd
EV -5.66%
Edge -2.98%
Kelly -6.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.10%49.64%49.67%51.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.861.871.9057.14%53.80%53.48%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Operario PR (Visit)

Prediction 21.73%4.60fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -0.642%
Kelly -0.826%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.83%21.73%21.78%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.214.204.4725.00%23.75%23.81%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.62%3.49fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.99%28.63%28.54%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.3233.33%31.47%31.25%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Criciuma (Local): 49.65%; Operario PR (Visit): 21.73%; Draw: 28.62%. For Operario PR (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.47, with an expected value of -2.87%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.66%E -2.98%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 23:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.66%E -2.98%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 23:44
SportsBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.50%EV -6.16%E -3.26%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.39%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-22 00:24
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.29%EV -6.16%E -3.26%K -6.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.44%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-21 23:23
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.33%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.17%EV -2.87%E -0.642%K -0.826%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.50%EV -4.99%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 00:34
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.90%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -5.91%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-22 01:24
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-22 00:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.36%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 23:29
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.36%EV -6.66%E -3.54%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 23:34
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.87%EV -7.15%E -3.82%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 01:14
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.15%E -3.82%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -4.39%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 00:23
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.56%EV -7.15%E -3.82%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.14%EV -8.99%E -2.83%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 00:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.95%EV -7.15%E -3.82%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-22 00:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.78%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -5.91%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.96%EV -8.99%E -2.83%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 00:59
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-22 00:24
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-21 22:55
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -14.14%E -4.71%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-21 22:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -14.14%E -4.71%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-21 22:24
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -14.14%E -4.71%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-21 22:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -14.14%E -4.71%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-21 22:24
Bovada🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.05%EV -8.64%E -4.70%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.17%EV -5.48%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 00:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.19%EV -8.64%E -4.70%K -10.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.08%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-21 23:34
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.28%EV -9.14%E -4.99%K -11.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-21 22:49
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -10.63%E -5.90%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-21 22:53
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.18%EV -13.11%E -7.49%K -17.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.83%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-21 23:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%0.2%2026-09-22 01:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%0.2%2026-09-22 01:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%0.2%2026-09-22 01:24
Matchbook1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-09-22 00:14
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.62%2.3%2026-09-22 01:15