Language:English
Criciuma v Operario PR
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Criciuma (Local)
Prediction 47.64%2.10fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.53%47.75%47.62%50.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.951.952.0255.56%51.20%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Operario PR (Visit)
Prediction 23.25%4.30fair odd
EV +0.884%
Edge +0.204%
Kelly +0.265%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%23.12%23.21%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.904.3427.78%25.63%25.64%23.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.12%3.43fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.663%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.25%29.13%29.17%30.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.153.3833.90%32.07%31.75%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Criciuma (Local): 47.64%; Operario PR (Visit): 23.25%; Draw: 29.12%. For Operario PR (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.884%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -7.59%E -3.91%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 4.34I 23.04%NM 22.12%EV +0.884%E +0.204%K +0.265%G +0.002% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.40%EV -1.58%E -0.467%K -0.663%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -6.16%E -3.13%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -2.37%E -0.564%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -2.37%E -0.564%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -14.26%E -7.92%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.37%E -0.564%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-22 22:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.48%EV -9.49%E -5.00%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -5.86%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.48%EV -9.49%E -5.00%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.74%EV -5.86%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.18%EV -5.20%E -2.62%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.34%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-22 22:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.18%EV -5.20%E -2.62%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.34%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.17%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV -7.48%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.37%EV -7.40%E -2.33%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-22 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.44%EV -7.59%E -3.91%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.24%EV -7.95%E -2.01%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.31%EV -8.57%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-22 22:17 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.59%EV -8.06%E -4.18%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -8.18%E -2.07%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.59%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -9.34%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.92%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.47%EV -9.34%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-22 22:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -9.34%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -9.02%E -4.72%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -9.34%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.17%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -8.28%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.08%EV -8.06%E -4.18%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.31%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-22 22:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -3.78%E -1.87%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.27%EV -10.92%E -5.84%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.18%EV -9.49%E -5.00%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-22 22:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -4.73%E -2.36%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -13.99%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -15.16%E -4.15%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -15.16%E -4.15%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.78%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -15.16%E -4.15%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.91%EV -7.59%E -3.91%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.40%EV -15.16%E -4.15%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.65%EV -8.06%E -4.18%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -16.32%E -4.53%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.87%EV -14.10%E -4.78%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-22 22:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.08% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.68% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.24% | 0.2% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.76% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.58% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66% | 0.7% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.01% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-09-22 22:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.29% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.19% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.52% | 2.7% | 2026-09-22 22:25 |