La escuela de los momios

Clube de Regatas Brasil v Fortaleza

Inicio: 2026-06-21 19:02 UTC

Final: Clube de Regatas Brasil 1–1 Fortaleza

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Clube de Regatas Brasil (Local)

Predicción 39.37%2.54momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -2.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.41%39.64%39.38%43.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.042.272.302.4549.02%44.00%43.48%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fortaleza (Visitante)

Predicción 31.43%3.18momio equitativo
EV +2.16%
Ventaja +0.665%
Kelly +0.960%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.45%31.21%31.48%32.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.992.943.2537.04%33.43%34.01%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.20%3.43momio equitativo
EV -3.65%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -1.59%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.22%29.14%29.13%31.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.703.143.103.3037.04%31.83%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 19:00
Casumo2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 19:00
Unibet (NL)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 18:59
Unibet (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 18:59
ATG (SE)2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 18:59
betPARX2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 18:59
Svenska Spel2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -14.96%E -6.93%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV +2.16%E +0.665%K +0.960%G +0.021%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-21 18:59
LowVig.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 41.64%EV -11.02%E -4.88%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV +0.589%E +0.184%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-21 18:59
BetOnline.ag2.26I 44.25%NM 41.64%EV -11.02%E -4.88%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV +0.589%E +0.184%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-21 18:59
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 42.59%EV -15.75%E -7.36%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV +0.589%E +0.184%K +0.268%G +0.002%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-21 18:52
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -18.11%E -8.71%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -0.983%E -0.312%K -0.457%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-21 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 43.01%EV -18.50%E -8.94%K -17.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.72%EV -2.55%E -0.824%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-06-21 19:00
TABtouch2.06I 48.54%NM 42.94%EV -18.90%E -9.17%K -17.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -2.55%E -0.824%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-06-21 18:59
Pinnacle2.45I 40.82%NM 39.33%EV -3.54%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -3.18%E -1.03%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.38%EV -4.24%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-21 18:59
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -19.69%E -9.65%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-21 19:00
LeoVegas2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -19.69%E -9.65%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-21 18:59
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 42.98%EV -19.69%E -9.65%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.74%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-21 18:59
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-21 18:59
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-21 18:59
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -11.42%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-06-21 18:59
Marathon Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.76%EV -8.27%E -3.55%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.30%EV -6.96%E -2.35%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 18:59
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 18:59
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 18:59
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -13.39%E -6.08%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-21 19:00
1xBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.62%EV -4.72%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.90%EV -7.90%E -2.70%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.48%EV -7.45%E -2.35%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-21 18:59
Bovada2.34I 42.74%NM 39.35%EV -7.87%E -3.37%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.42%EV -7.90%E -2.70%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 18:58
BetUS2.34I 42.74%NM 39.35%EV -7.87%E -3.37%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.42%EV -7.90%E -2.70%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.23%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 18:59
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 38.72%EV -6.30%E -2.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.56%EV -8.21%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-21 18:59
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.72%EV -6.30%E -2.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.56%EV -8.21%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-21 18:59
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-21 18:59
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-21 19:00
Unibet (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.30%E -2.65%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-21 18:59
Codere (IT)2.37I 42.19%NM 38.73%EV -6.69%E -2.82%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-21 18:59
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-21 19:00
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.3%2026-06-21 18:58
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 18:59
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 19:00
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 18:59
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -5.51%E -2.30%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-21 18:59
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.42%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-21 18:59
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-06-21 18:59
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -7.48%E -3.18%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -10.41%E -3.65%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-21 19:00
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.98%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-21 18:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.98%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-21 18:59
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.98%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-21 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -11.98%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-06-21 18:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -9.45%E -4.11%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -11.98%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -21.17%E -7.84%K -12.45%G +0.000%16.2%2026-06-21 19:00
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 39.08%EV -11.42%E -5.07%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -15.13%E -5.60%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%13.7%2026-06-21 18:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.68%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.76%0.3%2026-06-21 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-06-21 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.37%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.01%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-06-21 19:00
Smarkets2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88%1.4%2026-06-21 19:00
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-06-21 19:00