Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ceará v Cuiabá

Coup d’envoi : 2026-08-15 19:00 UTC

Score final : Ceará 1–3 Cuiabá

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

42 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Ceará (Local)

Prévision 41.94%2.38cote équitable
EV -3.95%
Avantage -1.72%
Kelly -3.06%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.29

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.83%41.95%41.97%44.64%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.962.162.202.2951.02%46.39%45.45%43.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Cuiabá (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.60%3.91cote équitable
EV +10.10%
Avantage +2.35%
Kelly +3.06%
Croissance +0.309%

avec la cote maximale 4.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.59%25.60%25.64%26.60%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.403.773.704.3029.41%26.49%27.03%23.26%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 32.45%3.08cote équitable
EV -3.30%
Avantage -1.11%
Kelly -1.66%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.98

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.60%32.44%32.39%33.82%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.602.792.782.9838.46%35.87%35.97%33.56%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Ceará (Local) : 41.94% ; Cuiabá (Visiteur) : 25.60% ; Match nul : 32.45%. Pour Cuiabá (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.91. 12 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.30, soit une espérance positive de +10.10%.

Cotes des opérateurs (42 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.64%EV -12.76%E -6.13%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV +10.10%E +2.35%K +3.06%G +0.309%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:55
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.59%EV -16.11%E -8.06%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV +4.98%E +1.21%K +1.61%G +0.080%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.65%EV -14.00%E -5.28%K -8.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.48%EV -16.11%E -8.06%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%EV +4.98%E +1.21%K +1.61%G +0.080%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.82%EV -14.65%E -5.57%K -8.99%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-15 18:54
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.61%EV -17.37%E -8.82%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV +2.42%E +0.605%K +0.806%G +0.019%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.42%EV -14.65%E -5.57%K -8.99%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-15 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.57%EV -17.79%E -9.08%K -18.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV +2.42%E +0.605%K +0.806%G +0.019%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.60%EV -15.63%E -6.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-15 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.57%EV -17.79%E -9.08%K -18.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV +2.42%E +0.605%K +0.806%G +0.019%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.60%EV -15.63%E -6.01%K -9.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-15 18:55
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -8.56%E -3.93%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.76%EV -3.47%E -0.921%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -6.54%E -2.27%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 18:53
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -3.98%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -9.14%E -3.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 18:50
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.97%EV -3.95%E -1.72%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.77%EV -4.50%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.26%EV -3.30%E -1.11%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 18:45
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -4.27%E -1.45%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 18:52
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.06%EV -6.04%E -2.70%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -5.89%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.06%EV -6.04%E -2.70%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -5.89%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:44
BetUS🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.06%EV -6.04%E -2.70%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -5.89%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 18:44
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -9.14%E -3.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 18:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.32%EV -8.14%E -3.72%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.63%EV -7.84%E -2.76%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 18:54
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -11.92%E -5.67%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -5.89%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 18:55
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.63%E -2.50%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.89%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 18:44
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -5.89%E -2.03%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -7.51%E -2.64%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 18:54
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.94%EV -9.79%E -3.52%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.94%EV -9.79%E -3.52%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 18:55
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 18:54
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 18:54
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -12.38%E -4.59%K -7.28%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -12.38%E -4.59%K -7.28%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 18:50
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -9.82%E -4.57%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 18:53
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -9.82%E -4.57%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.76%E -3.91%K -6.15%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 18:52
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.70%EV -7.30%E -3.30%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -9.10%E -2.56%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -7.51%E -2.64%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 18:43
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -6.54%E -2.27%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -7.51%E -2.64%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.82%E -4.57%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -9.14%E -3.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 40.83%EV -6.04%E -2.70%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -11.66%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.66%EV -9.14%E -3.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 09:53
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -7.72%E -3.51%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.14%E -3.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 18:44
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -11.92%E -5.67%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.14%E -3.26%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-15 18:49
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-08-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-08-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33%0.7%2026-08-15 18:55
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.66%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.21%1.1%2026-08-15 18:55
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.16%1.9%2026-08-15 18:55