The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ceará v América Mineiro

2026-11-08 22:15 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ceará (Local)

Prediction 56.66%1.76fair odd
EV -5.38%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -8.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.51%56.93%56.75%58.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.631.6764.52%61.70%61.16%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

América Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 18.30%5.46fair odd
EV +0.645%
Edge +0.117%
Kelly +0.143%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.51%17.99%18.29%19.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.105.005.5021.74%19.60%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.04%3.99fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -0.932%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%25.09%24.96%26.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.643.653.8528.57%27.45%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ceará (Local): 56.66%; América Mineiro (Visit): 18.30%; Draw: 25.04%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.46. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.50, producing a positive expected value of +0.645%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -10.48%E -6.63%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV +0.645%E +0.117%K +0.143%G +0.001%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -6.09%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-02 23:30
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -12.18%E -7.86%K -22.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV +0.645%E +0.117%K +0.143%G +0.001%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -8.60%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-02 23:30
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.60%EV -12.18%E -7.86%K -22.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV +0.645%E +0.117%K +0.143%G +0.001%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -8.60%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-02 23:30
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -11.04%E -7.04%K -19.38%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.19%E -0.219%K -0.269%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.09%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-02 23:30
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.66%EV -5.38%E -3.22%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.30%EV -5.39%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.03%EV -5.34%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-02 22:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.96%EV -8.21%E -5.07%K -13.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.09%EV -6.67%E -1.31%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -7.35%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-02 21:30
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.60%EV -7.08%E -4.32%K -11.06%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.31%EV -7.22%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.35%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-02 21:30
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -7.08%E -4.32%K -11.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -3.59%E -0.932%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-02 22:54
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.11%EV -6.51%E -3.95%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -8.60%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-02 22:50
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -6.51%E -3.95%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 21:30
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -6.51%E -3.95%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -6.51%E -3.95%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -6.51%E -3.95%K -10.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.50%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.35%E -3.53%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-02 21:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.01%EV -7.65%E -4.69%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -10.33%E -2.11%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-02 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.01%EV -7.65%E -4.69%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -10.33%E -2.11%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-02 22:20
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80%EV -9.35%E -5.84%K -15.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -15.82%E -3.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.80%EV -9.85%E -2.74%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-02 22:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 57.23%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.52%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%16.5%2026-11-02 23:30