Language:English
Botafogo-SP v Vila Nova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Prediction 37.70%2.65fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.06%37.65%37.74%39.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.442.452.5742.55%41.00%40.82%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vila Nova (Visit)
Prediction 30.96%3.23fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.687%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.95%31.05%30.86%33.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.903.1637.04%34.13%34.48%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.34%3.19fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.590%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.70%31.30%31.41%32.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.1535.71%33.85%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 37.70%; Vila Nova (Visit): 30.96%; Draw: 31.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.15, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -3.12%E -1.21%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.02%EV -9.60%E -3.29%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.59%EV -7.22%E -2.44%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.93%EV -4.25%E -1.67%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.49%EV -2.17%E -0.687%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.59%EV -4.40%E -1.44%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.74%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.48%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31%EV -8.48%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 18:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.74%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.48%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31%EV -8.48%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 18:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.74%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -2.48%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.31%EV -8.48%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.03%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.54%E -2.56%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 11:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -8.67%E -2.94%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-03 15:51 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -5.76%E -2.30%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -16.41%E -6.08%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -7.54%E -2.56%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-03 21:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.51%E -2.62%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 04:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.03%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 21:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.03%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-03 21:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-03 04:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.54%E -2.56%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -11.77%E -4.13%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.64%E -3.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-03 21:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 37.67%EV -8.02%E -3.29%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.69%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 21:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.56%EV -8.39%E -3.45%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.02%EV -11.77%E -4.13%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-30 00:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.94%EV -8.77%E -3.62%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -8.48%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 04:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.94%EV -8.77%E -3.62%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -8.48%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-03 04:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.86%EV -8.77%E -3.62%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-03 09:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -10.67%E -3.74%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.32%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-03 15:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-03 20:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-03 21:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.58%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.32%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.10%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.58%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.32%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.10%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -13.32%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -13.32%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -13.32%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -10.04%E -3.50%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.52%E -3.97%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -13.32%E -4.76%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -10.04%E -3.50%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-03 20:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -10.28%E -4.32%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -14.86%E -5.40%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -10.28%E -4.32%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -14.86%E -5.40%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-03 21:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -10.28%E -4.32%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -14.86%E -5.40%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -10.28%E -4.32%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -10.84%E -3.76%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-03 15:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.20%EV -11.41%E -4.86%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.50%EV -6.50%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.30%EV -4.72%E -1.55%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-30 00:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -11.41%E -4.86%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -14.86%E -5.40%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.72%EV -11.41%E -4.86%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.23%EV -14.86%E -5.40%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -7.54%E -2.56%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 21:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.89% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.7% | 2026-10-03 21:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.90% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.32% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78% | 1.5% | 2026-10-03 21:10 |